What market theme is most important going forward?

Is it an increasingly shaky emerging markets sector, which is being pressured by rising interest rates around the world?

Is it a falling U.S. dollar, which is contributing to inflation concerns here and abroad?

Or maybe it's the geopolitical rivalries that are roiling oil markets, generating insecurity for Russia and heightening trade tensions with China.

No, I suspect the most important market theme going forward is economic protectionism and the increasing world wide willingness to utilize trade and economic relations as blunt tools of statecraft.

This protectionism masquerades as economic patriotism in Europe and has become a tool with a political agenda in Asia.

Bolivia and Venezuela have nationalized resources to advance their agendas, and Russia has taken a heavy hand with those who question its nationalization of resources.

The rise in energy and commodity prices have emboldened countries to control their resources.

The U.S. is hardly exempt, most recently rejecting Lenovo computers for government purchase and proposing restrictions on foreign investment. That after rebuffing CNOOC and de-porting Dubai.

Protectionism extends to concerns over our borders with Canada and Mexico, the latter of which is attracting corporate interest in the wake of a $2 bln Homeland Security contract.

But wait.

If the U.S. runs trade deficits and trade partners holding dollars cannot use these to invest in American assets, why should they continue to hold dollars?

A Russian energy market priced in convertible roubles wouldn't need the dollar.

Maybe that's why gold has become a handy alternative to the dollar around the world.

When economic issues are framed in terms of national security in the U.S., in South America, and in Russia, it is difficult to see how the dollar--and any assets backed by dollars--can benefit. That means we have to pay higher interest rates to maintain the value of the dollar, which puts pressure on housing and economic expansion, which weighs on stocks.

Around the world, national (in)security has trumped free trade: That is the most important market theme going forward.

Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY and author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003). As Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago, he has mentored numerous professional traders and coordinated a training program for traders. An active trader of the stock indexes, Brett utilizes statistically-based pattern recognition for intraday trading. Brett does not offer commercial services to traders, but maintains an archive of articles and a trading blog at www.brettsteenbarger.com and a blog of market analytics at www.traderfeed.blogspot.com. His book, Enhancing Trader Development, is due for publication this fall (Wiley).