Last week, my top pick for “market mover” was the GDP revision for Q1 of this year. When the actual number came in well shy of the estimated 5.8% on Thursday, the market took off and finished the week strong.

Hey, this macro analysis really does work pretty well. The market’s reaction was quite logical and based on the idea that maybe there isn’t as much inflationary pressure in the economy as the bears fear. If that’s true, then maybe, just maybe, the Fed will pause in the rate hike cycle in June -- and maybe even call it quits for a while. In this scenario, the bulls once again take the upper hand -- or so the thinking goes.

But here’s the obvious next question: Suppose the Fed does announce a pause at the June 29/30 FOMC meeting and the market makes an upward move on that. After that move, what fuel is likely to feed its bullish fire?

On my list would be a moderation of the ongoing energy price shocks, a moderation of inflationary pressures, strong productivity, a modicum of peace in Iraq, or some signs that the housing sector is stabilizing. At this point, I wouldn’t bet the farm on any or all of these factors coming to fruition.

So the bottom line is this:

Short sellers beware the heavy risk of a Fed-pause inspired bullish boomlet. Long sellers face the question of what can possibly keep the party going after the Fed does its pause thing.

This Week’s Market Movers

The week’s major reports don’t hit until June kicks in on Thursday. Before that, only consumer confidence is likely to be of interest on Tuesday, with the expectation of bad news already built into the market.

On Thursday, however, we get productivity, the ISM index, and auto sales -- quite a trifecta. Lower productivity and/or a higher ISM will spark inflationary fears, and vice versa. Auto sales will gauge the consumers’ interest rate sensitivity once again and also signal something about the housing sector.

Then, on Friday, the Big Kahuna Jobs Report flies along with factory orders. Again, an “under” number on jobs and/or factory orders will give succor to the inflation doves and vice versa.

So expect an easygoing week until the reports hit the fan on Thursday.

Portfolio Picks and Pans: Two Thumbs Down on Business 2.0’s List

I’ve started to very cautiously scale back into my (QQQQ | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) short but fear the ongoing bounce here. Mostly I’m in cash.

This doesn’t mean I’m not looking to buy. That’s why I was intrigued by this month’s Business 2.0 feature on the “100 fastest growing tech companies.” I will be looking in more depth at some of the companies on this list in future editions of this newsletter, but the big picture for now is this: If you are a naïve and/or compulsive fundamental investor who, after reading a story like that, is likely to run out and buy a bunch of companies off such a list, hold your damn horses.

Only 11 of the 100 stocks on the list exhibit strong technical characteristics and are worth going long on right now. More than half of the stocks on the list can be characterized as “avoid” or “short sell”. This means that if you could buy an index of these “great” stocks, you would likely wind up in the red and have to wait some goodly while before the “fundamentals” got you back into the green -- if ever. This might be an acceptable strategy for long term buy and holders, but even long term buy and holders need to consider the appropriate time to enter a stock.

Peter Navarro is a business professor at the University of California and the author of the best-selling investment book "If It’s Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks." His latest book is "The Well-Timed Strategy."

www.peternavarro.com