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Maybe because it's the start of a new quarter or fiscal year, or maybe for some other reason, but April does not show much in the way of directional bias in the major forex pairs. AUD/USD has risen five of the last seven years (the time since the introduction of the Euro), but not in any meaningful fashion on average. The remaining pairs - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/CAD - all were virtual coin tosses, being essentially evenly split between up years and down ones. The same is true for the primary cross rates.
Directional considerations aside, April does tend to be quite volatile. Consider the following:
| Pair | Pip Range | |
| AUD/USD | 349 | |
| EUR/USD | 488 | |
| GBP/USD | 553 | |
| USD/CAD | 547 | |
| USD/JPY | 706 | |
| USD/CAD | 538 |
The table above outlines the average pip range for the major currency pairs during the month of April from 1999 to 2005.Even though the majors may not tend toward moving in one direction or another during the month, they certainly do move, so short-term traders can expect plenty of profit opportunities.
There are some specific days of the week which have demonstrated tendencies worth keeping in mind:
Of course the figures presented herein are simple observations based on the last seven years worth of data. Just because a pair has demonstrated a tendency to act on this way or that does not guarantee that it will do so again this time around. This information is probably best used to help one bias her/his trading, not necessarily as an outright trade decision tool. As always, sound risk management is strongly recommended.
Note: The statistical information provided in this article is presented in Opportunities in Forex Calendar Trading Patterns.
John Forman is the author of The Essentials of Trading (Wiley) and a near 20-year veteran of trading and investing across a wide array of markets and instruments.His analysis and market comments have been found in the financial news media across the world and he has published dozens of magazine articles on trading methodology and analytic techniques. To learn more about John's research and trading activities, visit the Anduril Analytics website.
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