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New ideas for the Fed

By Gary Kaltbaum | TradingMarkets.com
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First, a little rant...and then some short notes on Tuesday's action.   Since October, every time the FED talked (and that's many times), the market reacted positively. Maybe they should have "The FED Cable Channel." Maybe they should have "The FED IPod."  How about "The FED Phone?" Just turn it on and you will hear someone from the FED telling you how perfect everything is. Maybe they could just have the show "THE FED Idol." Every week, each of the FEDHEADS come out and try to top each other with pollyanish talk that everything is perfect. That way, the market will ramp up every day. We do not quibble with the FED thinking everything is perfect. They are a lot smarter than we are. In fact, they are right. There isn't any inflation. (clear throat) There isn't a problem with HOUSING. There isn't a problem with budget deficits, trade deficits, debt, derivatives...everything is just wonderful. Our problem...and there is no doubt in our mind...is that one day one of them is going to say something the market does NOT like...and this could potentially cause a severe dislocation. We do not believe the FED was invented to open their mouth on a daily basis...and that is what they are doing. There is not a day that goes by that Yellen, Poole, Bernanke and the rest do not yap away. We hope we are wrong about the outcome.   

The latest FEDSPEAK ramped the market in a big way Tuesday. Major indices got back most of the 3-4 weeks of a nominal correction in one day. Volume was heavy. Normally, this is a bullish occurrence that will lead to upside testing. Even though we have been negative on many groups, we have told you that until support is broken, the market gets the benefit of the doubt. The fact the market held right where it needed to led to this move.  

Nothing changed in all the COMMODITY sectors. They continue to ramp to the upside regardless of extended conditions. The main changes we saw on Tuesday were in the INTEREST-RATE sensitive areas.  

HOUSING popped from their recent oversold drubbing. Volume was heavy. The move started one minute after the FED yapped.

UTILITIES also ramped off their lows. UTILITIES have been in a downtrend since October. Finally, the REITS bounced over 2% after their recent drop. We believe there is a chance that today's action in these areas put in a decent low...not to be taken out in the short-term. This can only help the market as INTEREST-RATE sensitve stocks make up over 30% of the S&P.  

There is nothing bad to say about Tuesday's action overall. Breadth was strong...volume was strong and the move was broad-based. Just keep in mind that hundreds of companies are reporting earnings in the next couple of weeks. The playing field will most definitely change.

Gary Kaltbaum


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