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Why I think oil has topped

By Gary Kaltbaum | TradingMarkets.com
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Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"...a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts click here. 888-484-8220 ext. 1.

In one of my recent reports, I stated that I was seeing many tops in the OIL complex and that the OIH looked like a "big giant top." A break below 134 would be a negative and a break below 130 would be bye-bye.

I am now seeing that top starting to occur as the OIH is now falling off. Keep in mind, this is representative of many OIL SERVICE names. On top of that, the XLE, which represents BIG CAP OIL is now rolling over as it has broke short term support as well as moving averages. Names like COP,MRO and others are topping out. I would completely avoid this area for now as OIL PRICES look to be headed into the mid 60s.

On top of that, I told you that other COMMODITY areas were also acting like they would follow suit to the downside. That is occurring also as ALUMINUM,STEEL, COPPER and anything you can drop on your foot are going down. Most charts are rolling over. I would be avoiding these areas also as changes are in the wind.

This could be good news as it could give cover to the FED. Lower COMMODITY prices is a good thing and could start to take all the inflationary talk off the table. At least, that's what the BOND MARKET has been saying.

TECHNOLOGY continues to get most of the bid right now as the resistance levels we outlined for you on the NASDAQ have been taken out. The SOX is leading the way. And when the SOX gets going, investors hold on for the very last drop. It is not often that "markets" get in trouble when the SEMIS are in gear. Keep in mind, the SEMIS are still way down from the highs and have plenty of damage to repair. This is occurring while all the news is bad in SEMILAND. At the highs, all the news was good. A lesson to be learned.

You can see how important it is to be sector-specific right now. Even though the D0W and S&P are a smidge from the highs...even though the NASDAQ and SOX have the bid right now, there are still plenty of uglies in RETAIL,TRANSPORTS,HOUSING and other areas. In fact, BROKERS are now rolling over badly which is less-than-thrilling. I am playing this game sector by sector right now...now more than ever.

Gary Kaltbaum


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