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U.S. 10-year Treasury bond prices rallied today on the known troubles affecting the market. The credit and housing crisis has led many traders to predict a recession for the U.S. economy, based on the massive losses which are spreading through the varying sectors. Bonds have shot up to 3-year record highs on negative expectations, despite a basically guaranteed rate cut to come at the end of the month. Bonds typically rally on economic weakness and fall on strength, so it's clear that traders have taken a defensive position in this economy, relative to bonds.
The dollar sank to just off all-time record lows versus the euro, and also dropped against the yen today. Traders sold the dollar on heavy betting that the U.S. Fed will cut interest rates at the end of the month, as banks and major corporations continue to take massive losses on a broad economic slowdown. The housing and credit market crisis has spread to affect a number of different sectors, and many traders are calling for an all-out recession for the U.S. The euro was also down against the yen, but most of the action today surrounded dollar weakness.
Crude oil futures rallied today after 3 straight down days; oil prices were up about 1.5%. Crude oil prices hit record highs 2 weeks ago on demand worries, reaching $100 a barrel before falling back. Since then, crude prices fell around 8% before today's bounce. Traders are still very concerned about oil demand levels compared to inventory levels, and many traders are looking for oil prices to go even higher. Natural gas futures rose moderately today.
Gold futures rose to a new record high today above $900, on dollar weakness and high oil prices. Gold normally trades inversely to the dollar and with oil. Today, traders bought gold on dollar weakness and rising oil prices. Traders use gold as a hedge against currency weakness and inflation. Copper futures were also moderately higher.
Stocks rallied on Monday as the prospect of further rate cuts, and IBM's strong earnings, provided a ray of sunshine for investors. Click here to read the rest of today's Stock Market Recap.
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