Oil has been hitting record high after record high over the last several weeks. Today at 10:30 am weekly oil inventory data will be released.  This number is critical for the future price of oil-indications are that it will be higher than expected, potentially much higher, smacking oil down. 

There is the possibility that this figure may be less than expected which will easily push oil above our previous projected high of 125.  However, if my thoughts are correct, oil could downward spiral to around 100 very quickly.

Shokri Ghanem of Libya's National Oil Corp told Bloomberg this morning: "There is no shortage of supply now but there may be one, speculations, political conflicts are pushing prices up."

This seems to confirm my belief that oil is being driven purely by hype and once the hype settles down, so will oil.

Take a look at the daily chart here.  What a raging bull market! However, as you know, nothing goes straight up in the markets.  The 200 day SMA is way way down at 91.93 with the 50 day SMA is at 108.88. 

I am standing by my projection of 101 prior to 125, although I agree it's looking bleak right now.

Good Luck!

Dave Goodboy is Vice President of Marketing for a New York City based multi-strategy fund.