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The dollar collapsed versus the European currencies on Friday on demand for carry trades and amid light volume at the end of the second quarter. Following a mild pullback, the European currencies should attempt to advance further against the dollar and the yen. Dollar/yen didn’t react to news that the Tankan business survey, showed confidence among large manufacturers was unchanged at 23 points in the second quarter and near the fourth quarter’s two-year high of 25. The US agenda opens with the release of the ISM manufacturing report for June.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged on Friday to a three-week high of 1.3539, nearly reaching the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The medium-term outlook is positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3553. A close above this pivot high would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3610.
Initial support is at 1.3505. Next levels are 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen held its own on Friday. It should attempt to extend its recovery today.
Immediate resistance is at 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Initial support is at 123.00. Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 2 ½-month high of 2.0075 on Friday. The medium-term outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0075, resistance remains between 2.0131 and 2.0151.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0020. If the 1.9940 level gives way on a closing basis, look for further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell to a three-week low of 1.2216 on Friday and formed a bearish reversal formation, which targets the 1.2100 area. The medium term outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2190. Strong support follows soon at 1.2175. Below the pivotal support at 1.2149 dollar/Swiss franc has support at 1.2100.
Initial resistance is at 1.2250. Above the resistance at 1.2310 there is good resistance at 1.2350.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
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