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The dollar slipped versus the European currencies and the yen late on the last day of July. The US data was abundant, but very mixed, on Tuesday and the market didn’t react much to it; the ECI was strong, spending light, the Chicago PMI was weak but the consumer sentiment index was strong. Look for more consolidation today and look for some brief direction from the US ISM report today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar closed little changed on Tuesday after forfeiting light early gains. The medium-term decline should persist, but should resume later this week.
Resistance remains at 1.3732. Strong support follows at 1.3775. There is a pivotal high at 1.3853. Distant resistance is now pegged at 1.3935.
Initial support is still in place at 1.3665. Support follows at 1.3625 from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June 13 – July 24 leg of the uptrend and then at 1.3605. Next level is at 1.3555.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell late on Tuesday and will likely attempt again to penetrate the long-term trendline support at 108.00 a day earlier. Expect it to fail and then to make another attempt higher today – but not too aggressive.
Initial support is still seen at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Next key level is at 118.00. Distant support looms at 116.75.
Immediate resistance is at 119.15. Strong, resistance is seen at 119.65 from a 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
The sterling/dollar made the expected upmove on Tuesday. The initial bias is still upward, but the medium-term outlook is bearish.
Initial resistance is at 2.0380. Further resistance is at 2.0430.
Immediate support is at 2.0300. A break below the 2.0245 level would signal a further slide to 2.0200. Only a break below this level would confirm that a peak is finally in place.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc finally ditched the silly “pattern” of one day up and one day down for nine days as made no progress on Tuesday. Sideways to lower trading is likely.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2000. Strong support follows at 1.1962. If this pivotal low gives way, then the downtrend is rejuvenated and dollar/Swiss should challenge 1.1835.
Initial resistance is at 1.2065. Next cap remains at 1.2140. It would take a break above this level to increase the odds that a significant low is in place.
Oscillators are mixed
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
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