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Economists' tips on picking leaders
Sunday, April 13, 2008; Posted: 06:27 AM
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Apr 13, 2008 (The News & Observer - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- -- When talking about the economy, candidates try to wow voters with numbers and appeal to them with proposals that promise big fixes to all sorts of problems.

It can be downright confusing.

We talked with three economists to understand what they look for when evaluating political candidates. Their insight could help you cut through the clutter.

Q. First off, do elected leaders really have that much influence on the economy?

A. "They can do a lot," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a left-leaning think tank in Washington. "The big tool that government has is fiscal policy."

Politicians at the federal and state level, for example, can direct government spending in ways that create jobs. Several candidates during this election cycle have proposals to increase government spending on alternative energy, infrastructure and other programs that could boost employment.

Q. How much attention should voters give to candidates' economic plans?

A. "They're not going to be able to deliver on them as stated," said Stanley W. Black, an economics professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Presidents have to convince Congress to approve their proposals, governors must woo members of the state legislature, and U.S. senators have one vote of 100. Proposals change during the process.

But candidates' economic plans "at least give you an idea of what they like," Black said. "They tell you what they care about and what they want to do."

Q. What about costs then? Should voters worry about the costs of candidates' proposals or just focus on their ideas?

A. "There is always an opportunity cost," said Patrick J. Conway, also an economics professor at UNC-Chapel Hill. "If we have a candidate who says, 'I'm willing to pay $60 billion to subsidize alternative fuels,' every voter should ask, 'What am I giving up to achieve that goal?' "

What's more, he said, proposals can have unintended consequences. By pushing for a shift toward alternative energy, including ethanol, the federal government stoked demand for grains used in its production.

That, in turn, has raised prices for ingredients in staples such as bread and cereal and pinched consumers' budgets.

Q. Any tips for voters trying to assess the policies of the candidates?

--Beware campaign rhetoric, Black said. Democrats accuse Republicans of looking out for the wealthy, and Republicans accuse Democrats of following a tax-and-spend approach. Usually the realities of candidates' positions are more complex.

--Look for direct and specific approaches, the economists said. Are candidates proposing ideas that tackle core economic problems or just dealing with the effects of those problems?

--Consider the private sector, Conway said. He listens for ideas from candidates that take advantage of markets -- not just regulation or mandates -- to achieve goals.

To see more of The News & Observer, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.newsobserver.com. Copyright (c) 2008, The News & Observer, Raleigh, N.C. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

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