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DJ CME Livestock Review:Cattle Complex End Uneven; Hogs Higher

Thu. November 13, 2008; Posted: 04:06 PM
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CHICAGO, Nov 13, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- CME | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Chicago Mercantile Exchange December through August live cattle settled flat to firm Thursday on spreaders who bought December and April and sold February on spreads. Periodic corn-price spikes elevated June and August, while buyer caution weighed on other months.

Feeder cattle also posted an uneven finish. Pork bellies ended mixed while lean hogs closed higher.

Beef contracts moved up at first on short covering and spot-December and nearby-February's slightly oversold Relative Strength Index conditions. Vibrant wholesale beef demand remained a positive spot-month factor.

Deferred cattle options attracted speculative bulls after Chicago Board of Trade corn rallied from Wednesday's lows soon after its 10:30 EST outcry open.

However, live cattle recoiled from morning tops after December and February came up against 20-day moving average resistance. Also, traders responded in kind to the U.S. financial sector that saw slight early gains evaporate as the morning wore on.

Furthermore, initial back-month cattle longs bailed out of those positions when CBOT corn at times fluctuated between positive and negative trading territory.

Nonetheless, even the prospect that packers might roll back cash bids, based on future's losses on Wednesday and part of Friday, did not deter some December buyers.

Even if processors pay $1 to $2 per hundredweight less for cash-basis fed cattle this week, the outcome would remain a premium to spot-December and nearby-February, a broker said.

Some fed cattle this week sold for $91 to $92 against asking prices elsewhere at $95 to $97. Most cash cattle last week moved at $94.

Thursday was the last official day for the current Goldman Roll period. However, cleanup rolling is expected into early next week because of December's sizable open interest.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's midday Thursday boxed beef data showed choice cuts up $0.46 per hundredweight and select items gained $0.39.

"Boxed beef was still up, but not like before," a veteran cattle trader said. "It (boxed beef) can't just keep going higher, otherwise it will price itself out of the market."

Typical Friday position squaring, potential outside-market issues and mounting cash cattle price anticipation could make for a volatile session heading into the weekend.

Feeder cattle ended uneven as well, following live cattle's varied settlement, short covering and forward positioning that drove up November through March. Future's premium to CME's feeder cattle index and CBOT corn's late-day push drove up other feeder contracts.

December live cattle closed up 2 points at 90.55 cents a pound, and February finished unchanged at 91.72 cents. April ended up 2 points at 92.82 cents.

November feeder cattle ended up 32 points at 97.17 cents, and January closed up 15 points at 96.37 cents.

Pork Complex

Lean hogs ended higher on short covering, supportive cash hog prices and buy stops.

Spot-December and nearby-February pork futures rose at first on both contracts' oversold chart conditions. Also, steady-to-higher cash hog prices emboldened front-month buyers.

And spot-December's upward momentum pushed the contract beyond Thursday's high, which set off buy stops. And December and February buying interest increased after both contracts cracked their respective 20-day moving average resistance barriers.

However, hog futures settled off highs of the day due to inconsistent U.S. financial market trading. Also, sporadic CBOT corn slippage at times dampened distant-month hog buying enthusiasm.

December/February forward positioning was the most popular play of the session.

Hog buyers foresee flat to firm hog prices for Friday as processors prepare for an estimated 160,000- to- 170,000-head Saturday slaughter.

Residual Goldman roll transactions are expected for Friday. Also, bullish and bearish traders are expected to settle their affairs before the weekend.

Pork bellies finished mixed on lean hog advances, February chart support and July technical pressure.

December hogs closed 75 points higher at 56.20 cents a pound, and February finished up 47 points at 63.20 cents.

February pork bellies closed up 30 points at 85.25 cents, and July ended down 10 points at 88.80 cents.

-By Theopolis Waters; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5778; theopolis.waters@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-13-08 1606ET

For full details on Cme Group Inc (CME) click here. Cme Group Inc (CME) has Short Term PowerRatings of 8. Details on Cme Group Inc (CME) Short Term PowerRatings is available at This Link.

    


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