OPINION: Bradley Effect fails to save John McCain

Nov 14, 2008 (Florence Morning News - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- NWS | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- I thought I had it figured out. John McCain looked close enough for the famous Bradley Effect to push him past Barack Obama in several key states and get him the necessary electoral votes.

(The Bradley Effect gets its name from the California election when Tom Bradley, a black candidate, led in polls, but many whites just would not finally vote for the black for governor. Bradley surprisingly lost.)

In addition, I doubted that the youth who were so hot for Obama would really endure the long lines to vote. The record of youth voting is not good. Those things made me think we were going to see another big frustration for the Democrats last Tuesday. I was predicting a McCain win.

Then I watched as Obama piled up electoral votes and finally had enough to win. In the popular vote, his six percent margin was consistent with the average of late polls.

Bradley's experience was in 1982. Maybe the Bradley Effect is not as likely today.

Obviously, it's historic for the nation to elect a black president. It's something I thought some day would happen, but I never expected to see it. But a couple of things that didn't happen were also pleasing.

The first and most obvious is that the race card did not work this time. Organizations allegedly not connected with campaigns have always done the dirty work, like in 2000 in the S.C. GOP presidential primary when phone callers, among other things, pushed a myth that McCain had fathered an illegitimate multi-race child. That was very helpful to the George W. Bush campaign in a race conscious state like South Carolina.

The other was that for the second consecutive national election, the fear card did not work. Fear has served the Republicans well for about 60 years, starting with fear of communism. When that receded, terrorism made a timely entry and they sold fear of terrorism.

But in 2006 the fear card did not work, and the Democrats were swept into control of the Congress. Last Tuesday it failed again, and Obama won the White House and Democrats' control of Congress strengthened.

Tom Brokaw said the day after the election that this time Obama had been able to make the election about solutions "and not ideological food fights." Obama kept the campaign on the subject and did not get tempted off onto tangents that might have helped his opponent. Brokaw also might have had Winston Churchill in mind when he said that one strength Obama will have as president is "he can mobilize the language."

Edward R. Murrow once said that Churchill "mobilized the English language and sent it into battle" when he inspired the British nation during World War II.

One pleasing result Tuesday was Elizabeth Dole losing her U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina. She had played the religion card against her opponent, a Presbyterian Church elder and Sunday School teacher, labeling her "godless." It was reminiscent of Jesse Helms campaigns but backfired. Also interesting will be a likely runoff for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat of Saxby Chambliss which I would love to see him lose. He won a U.S. Senate seat by questioning the national security commitment of his predecessor, Max Cleland. Cleland, whom he likened to Osama bin Laden in a TV commercial, lost three limbs in Vietnam fighting for his country. It was the most despicable political stunt I remember.

Besides Obama, the biggest winner might be Sarah Palin. If she does not have a big political future, she might on television. Maybe Fox News? SNL?

John McCain had a great moment in his concession speech the other night. He tried to soothe anxieties, pledged his support for Obama and called on his supporters to do the same. It was a fine and graceful exit after a long, hard campaign. It might have been his finest hour. I couldn't help but think back about how much better off we would have been if McCain had gotten the Republican nomination in 2000 and the country had been saved from George W. Bush.

As for Obama, he promised in his speech to try to earn the support of the people who didn't vote for him. It will be nice if we have an administration with adult supervision.

-- Thom Anderson is a retired journalist who has 40 years experience with South Carolina newspapers, including the Morning News. E-mail him at .

To see more of the Florence Morning News or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.morningnewsonline.com. Copyright (c) 2008, Florence Morning News, S.C. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

More News:   Market Updates | Stock Alerts | All Trading News | Stock Index