San Jose Mercury News, Calif., Jon Wilner column: Wilner: Big Game likely to be won in trenches

Nov 22, 2008 (San Jose Mercury News - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- DIS | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Hot off the Mercury News' college sports blog, the College Hotline ...

The 111th Big Game could resemble the 11th Big Game, played before the advent of the forward pass.

Stanford would run the ball every play if it could. Cal prefers a balanced attack but lacks the line, quarterback and receivers to throw effectively.

So we could see an old-fashioned affair this afternoon at Memorial Stadium, with a smattering of completed passes and plenty of off-tackle runs on third-and-nine.

Last year, the Cardinal and Bears combined for 228 ground yards and 448 through the air. I expect those numbers to reverse today.

--Stanford's goal: Make it a steel-cage match, decided by brute force in close quarters on the line of scrimmage.

Its power running game could cause major problems for Cal's 3-4 defense, which uses a 230-pound linebacker where most teams use a 290-pound tackle. Will the pounding cause Cal's knees to buckle in the fourth quarter?

Likewise, Stanford's hard-charging defensive line and blitzing linebackers might overwhelm the Bears' pass protection, which includes three first-year starters.

The Bears couldn't keep quarterback Kevin Riley safe last week at Oregon State, and Stanford's pass rush is as good as OSU's, if not better.

--Cal's goal: Play catch-me-if-you-can by using its speed in the open field.

Tailbacks Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen are capable of scoring from anywhere against

the somewhat-plodding Stanford defense. Receivers Verran Tucker, LaReylle Cunningham and Nyan Boateng could puncture the Cardinal secondary if Riley has enough time to throw.

And Cal's super-swift defense could generate a game-altering turnover at any time, whether it's an interception by cornerback Syd'Quan Thompson or a fumble-creating hit caused by linebacker Zack Follett.

Expect it to be close and relatively low scoring, and pay careful attention to third downs. Given the inefficient passing games, the team that best avoids third-and-long will have a decisive advantage.

--The Emerald Bowl, based at AT&T Park and the only bowl game within hundreds of miles of the Bay Area, has never had a local team.

This year, it might get Cal. It might have to choose between Cal and Stanford. Or it might end up with San Jose State. Or it might not get any of them.

If Stanford beats Cal, both would be in the mix of Pac-10 teams available for the Emerald, which is fifth in the league's pecking order.

If the Bears beat the Cardinal and the pieces fall correctly in the Pac-10, then Cal could be there for the taking. (Stanford would not be eligible.)

And if the Pac-10 doesn't have enough teams to fill its slot in the Emerald, then executive director Gary Cavalli could turn to the Western Athletic Conference for an at-large participant.

That participant could be San Jose State.

--ESPN, citing anonymous sources, reported that Stanford Coach Jim Harbaugh's three-year contract extension (starting in 2011) will be worth in excess of $1.25 million per season.

That might seem very un-Stanford-like, but Athletic Director Bob Bowlsby was hired to fix the floundering football program and locking up Harbaugh for the long term is part of that process.

I'm sure plenty of Nobel Prize winners on campus are outraged. But if you want to win -- and it appears President John Hennessy and the trustees do -- you have to pay market rate.

Another reason for the seven-figure extension: Stanford agreed to pay men's basketball coach Johnny Dawkins approximately $900,000 per season (for five years!) last spring even though he'd never been a head coach.

Harbaugh deserves more than Dawkins.

--I was worried that Fox would take advantage of an exclusive negotiating window to sign a new contract with the Bowl Championship Series for the 2010-2013 seasons.

But Monday, the network announced it had backed out of talks in the face of a bigger offer from ESPN.

And college football fans everywhere should celebrate.

Unless, of course, you like listening to Terry Bradshaw and Jimmy Johnson and all the Fox folks who know nothing about college football.

I don't. It's often painfully clear that they have little interest and zero insight.

ESPN is much better positioned to provide compelling BCS analysis during the pressurized weeks in October and November. And its BCS game coverage will be a thousand times better than what we get from Fox.

ESPN knows how to broadcast college football -- it does it five days a week, after all.

Fox is for the NFL.

Check out Jon Wilner's College Hotline at blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports. Contact him at jwilner@mercurynews.com or (408) 920-5716.

To see more of the San Jose Mercury News, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.mercurynews.com. Copyright (c) 2008, San Jose Mercury News, Calif. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

More News:   Market Updates | Stock Alerts | All Trading News | Stock Index