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"Christmas is booking, but nothing compared to years past," Majchrowicz said. "I think 2009 is definitely going to be a tough year."
Few in the tourism industry are doubting that outlook, but there's no consensus on how badly South Florida's top economic engine will suffer.
"October and November is when [hotels] make their budgets for next year. Nobody knows what to do," said Scott Brush, a hospitality analyst in Miami. "Everybody's just nervous."
Recent figures on hotel bookings confirm the unfolding decline, but don't show the kind of collapse other sectors of the economy felt this fall. Miami-Dade County hotels saw a dip in occupancy and room rates during October, while hotels in Broward and the Keys saw steeper declines.
"They aren't as nice as I'd like to see them," Brush said of the figures from Smith Travel Research for Miami-Dade, where room rates dropped 1 percent last month and occupancy slipped two points. "Then again, they aren't as bad as some places in the country."
The financial crisis that began in September with the Lehman Brothers collapse has spurred tourism bureaus into a crisis footing not seen since the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.
Tourism directors in Broward and the Keys announced emergency measures this fall. The Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau followed suit in recent weeks, announcing a rare winter advertising campaign aimed at bolstering the peak of tourism season.
The tax-funded bureau will spend about $1 million targeting vacationers planning trips between January and April, when Miami's balmy weather usually sells itself. The bureau has not funded a winter vacation campaign since 2002, when terrorism fears soured many consumers to flying. To replenish its advertising budget, the bureau may tap into an emergency fund that also was last used to combat the post-9/11 tourism crisis.
"I think everybody is concerned about the future, including us," said William Talbert, the bureau's president.
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