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DJ Lead Price Outlook Weakens As Demand Falls, Output Cuts Slow

Thu. December 04, 2008; Posted: 07:16 AM
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LONDON, Dec 04, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- IVWFF | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Lead prices on the London Metal Exchange Thursday are poised to fall further after dropping sharply in the previous session, and analysts are now forecasting that the metal's demand base could weaken further as growth in China continues to weaken and car sales keep falling.

Ivernia Inc.'s (IVW.T) subsidiary Magellan Metals Ltd. announced Wednesday that the company is now allowed to export lead concentrates from Western Australia, following a ban that has been in force since early last year after problems with lead poisoning at the port there.

The news that 8,000 tons of concentrates could be exported triggered technical selling in lead on Wednesday, as it dropped 11% on the day. The metal recouped some of those losses Thursday, but the outlook is expected to get worse.

Lead prices are down 75% from their record high of October 2007 to trade around $1,000 a metric ton Thursday as of 1157 GMT. Asia accounts for 48% of lead consumption and batteries account for 71% of its use.

Lead isn't seeing the same kinds of production cuts as other metals such as zinc, leaving it open to an increasing surplus as demand drops.

"Woes in the global auto industry have drawn attention to the fact that demand for first-use batteries has collapsed," Standard Bank said. "This may leave the market vulnerable to weaker prices and stock build-ups once the winter replacement battery season has passed its peak."

-By Devon Maylie, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9483; devon.maylie@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-04-08 0716ET

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