May 26, 2009 (FinancialWire) -- Dr. Joe Duarte (http://www.joe-duarte.com), recently noted: As the stock market starts to show signs of weakness, the Short S&P 500 Proshares (NYSE: SH | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) seems to have formed a double bottom.
Duarte added: Two things are evident in this market. One is that stocks are having a hard time climbing. The other is that some ETFs that specialize in short selling seem to have bottomed out. That means that money flows are starting to reverse, and that the rally that started on March 6, is losing steam.
And while a major top is not totally evident, yet; there are signs that suggest that the market has lost momentum. Two prominent ones are the lack of a new high on the S&P 500 after May 8, and the market's breadth--the number of stocks rising vs. those falling in price,--is starting to decrease.
This is a new development, as the market's breadth after the March bottom was excellent, a sign of momentum which proved correct, as stocks continued to rise.
So, what does this mean? It means that we're in the midst of a transition. The more important question is what we are transitioning to. And that's not as easy to answer.
The two most likely choices, are that we're about to enter a trading range or that we're about to start heading lower at an aggressive rate of descent.
The odds are hard to predict right now. The third, and least likely outcome, at least based on current data, is that the market recovers and we move to new highs for the current move. That would require a very strong close on the S&P 500 above 950.
Duarte's conclusion: More than anything we expect a very choppy trading pattern ahead.
Make sense of today's nonsense. Get Doctor Joe Duarte's Market I.Q., at:
http://www.joe-duarte.com/free/order_choices.asp and subscribe to www.joe-duarte.com, for its daily energy review and stock picks.
A book for this market - The All NEW Market Timing For Dummies. at: http://www.tinyurl.com/market-timing .
Duarte partners with the Investors Resource Center at Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com).
Duarte's IntelligentForecasts.com (http://www.intelligentforecasts.com) provides free news coverage and analysis, and his daily articles and news summaries offer recommendations and analysis for ETFs, and individual stocks in the technology, health and biotechnology, and energy sectors. Duarte has combined expertise in health care, energy, and the effects of politics and global intelligence on the financial markets offer a unique blend of insight and information to thousands of active investors and political and intelligence aficionados around the world on a daily basis.
He is the author of: Futures And Options For Dummies, Successful Energy Sector Investing, Successful Biotech Investing and co-author of After-Hours Trading Made Easy. In early 2001, in Successful Energy Sector Investing, he correctly predicted that Venezuela's political problems could lead to an energy crisis in the United States. He has also appeared as a weekly guest on Market Mavens Radio and has logged appearances on KNX radio in Los Angeles, Financial Sense.com radio, and Wall Street Radio.
One of CNBC's original Market Mavens, Dr. Duarte has been writing about the financial markets since 1990. His articles and commentary have been featured on CBS Marketwatch, Barron's, Smart Money, Medical Economics, and in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazines. In 2003, Doctor Duarte received second place, in the professional section, of the Medical Economics Investment Challenge with a 12-month return of 42%.
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