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Global IBs raise S. Korea's growth forecast for this year

Mon. June 22, 2009; Posted: 12:46 AM
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SEOUL, Jun 21, 2009 (Asia Pulse Data Source via COMTEX) -- C | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Seven global investment banks raised this month their forecasts for South Korea's 2009 economic growth rate to an average of -2.5 percent from an earlier estimate of an average of -4.0 percent made in March, financial industry sources said Saturday.

The banks are Morgan Stanly, Citigroup Inc., JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse.

The prediction came after the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in a report early this month that South Korea's economy has already bottomed out and is expected to recover at the fastest out of the world's major countries.

In particular, JP Morgan estimated that the Korean economy is expected to contract at an annualized rate of -1.8 percent in 2009, up from its earlier projection of -2.8 percent made in March.

Goldman Sachs revised upward its forecast for the country's economic growth rate for this year to -3.0 percent this year from an earlier prediction of -4.5 percent.

The upward revision for South Korea's 2009 economic growth rate will have a positive impact to the inflow of global investment funds to the country, analysts said.

"If global investment banks raise South Korea's economic growth forecast, it will play a positive role in the country's economic recovery to a certain degree," said Lee Dong-soo, an analyst at Tong Yang Securities Inc.

Despite the improved outlook for economic growth, analysts remain cautious about the prospects for the country's economy, as there are negative factors such as the South Korean won's rise against the U.S. dollar and climbing crude prices.

"Though the Korean economy will likely continue to improve in the second half of the year, it may lose upward momentum due to a fall in fiscal spending," Park Hyeong-joong, an analyst at Woori Investment Securities Co.

Rising crude prices and increases in prices and property prices may be able to curb the growth of the country's economy, he added.

For full details on Citigroup (C) click here. Citigroup (C) has Short Term PowerRatings of 6. Details on Citigroup (C) Short Term PowerRatings is available at This Link.

    


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