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As part of the global trend, the analysts see Israel's GDP growing 2 percent in 2010, after falling 1.1 percent in 2009. They expect Israel's inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rise 2.1 percent in 2009, and at a slower rate of 1.9 percent in 2010.
In contrast, the IMF sees the Israeli economy growing by just 0.3 percent in 2010, and the Bank of Israel's 2010 forecast is for 1 percent economic growth.
Deutsche Bank says its higher global growth forecast is entirely based on stronger expected growth in industrial countries with growth next year now forecast to reach 1 percent compared to its previous call of 0.3 percent. The bank sees two factors pushing for stronger economic growth -- a better outlook for investment growth (which they increase to 2 percent from 0.1 percent in their previous estimate ), and better export growth (up to 4.1 percent from -2.2 percent before). Deutsche Bank says, "The improved prospects for exports and investment reflect greater confidence in the effectiveness of authorities' efforts to restore stability in the financial sector."
Nonetheless, the bank warns that changes in global trade trends (a breakdown of the past decade's model of some countries importing goods and services mostly for domestic consumption, while others, such as Japan, Germany, and China produced to satisfy that demand) and the financial crisis seem to point to a period of lower trend growth and higher economic volatility.
Among other EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Australasia) region countries, Deutsche Bank sees Egypt's GDP growing 2.9 percent in 2009 and 5.4 percent in 2010 (Egypt's fiscal year ends June), Romania's GDP falling 3.9 percent in (calendar year) 2009 and rising 3.5 percent in 2010, Kazakhstan GDP falling 2.2 percent in 2009 and rising 3.3 percent in 2010, and Russia's GDP falling 4.4 percent in 2009 and rising 1.8 percent in 2010.
To see more of the Globes or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.globes-online.com. Copyright (c) 2009, Globes, Tel Aviv, Israel Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.
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