Toledo area's home equity is sinking: ?Underwater? rate put at 44%

First American CoreLogic, of Santa Ana, Calif., said the 61,155 properties that it believes are in a negative equity position have a total property value of $7.2 billion.

In addition, another 8,120 properties were in a near-negative equity position; that is, they are within 5 percent of being underwater, CoreLogic said. That means, according to the firm's estimates, that nearly half of home-owners either owe more than their homes are worth or are close to owing more.

Lucas County Treasurer Wade Kapszukiewicz, co-chairman of the county's Foreclosure Task Force, said the numbers are not surprising, given the area's high number of foreclosures.

But even if more homeowners are underwater, it doesn't necessarily mean those properties are headed for foreclosure, Mr. Kapszukiewicz said.

"It does continue to mean that people are not going to have the net worth they had four or five years ago and they are going to be working harder for less money, and their number one investment isn't going to be providing them with the equity that they thought it would," he said.

Metro Toledo includes Lucas, Wood, Fulton, and Ottawa counties.

Nationally, 15.2 million, or 32 percent of all mortgage properties, were in negative equity. Ohio had 861,528 properties, or 39 percent, in negative equity, while Michigan had 655,912 properties, or 48 percent, underwater.

The numbers would seem to indicate that the Toledo area housing situation is worsening, since at the end of 2008 CoreLogic said its data showed that 30,140, or 28 percent, of all Toledo-area properties with a mortgage were in negative equity.

But local appraiser Ben Burnor, vice president of Burnor Appraisal, said that the new numbers should be viewed with skepticism.

"Many of the [housing] values they use are simply not representative of the market. These could be very skewed statistics," he said.

Mr. Burnor said CoreLogic and similar firms rely on computerized AVMs -- automated valuation modules -- that determine the market value of the properties. "The numbers they come up with are nowhere near the numbers I come up with," he said.

CoreLogic's disclaimer says that it uses public records data to calculate outstanding mortgage debt for properties. Housing values are derived using its automated formula for properties valued between $30,000 and $30 million.

The firm collects data from 47 million properties nationally, and revised its database this year to include new liens, other types of property, and a broader range of home values.

Contact Jon Chavez at:jchavez@theblade.com or 419-724-6128.

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