Biron says, "The Brazilian potash market continues to un-freeze, following to the price settlement in India, with a notable pick up in volumes at $525 per ton." However, the weak monsoon in India may result in reduced fertilizer imports, and while he expects India to fulfill its existing contracts, there is a risk to optional volumes and a potential build-up of inventories. Biran also does not expect China to return to the potash market in 2009, and the European market remains inactive due to excess inventories.
Biran reiterates his "Neutral" recommendation for Israel Chemicals, but raises his target price from NIS 38 to NIS 44, just 0.2 percent above yesterday's closing price of NIS 43.90. The share fell 1.4 percent by midday today to NIS 43.27.
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