ForecastIQ(TM): Outlook for Same Store Sales Growth Soggy Heading Into the Holidays

Not surprisingly, retailers with higher price points are expected to
see declines this holiday season. Abercrombie & Fitch and Banana
Republic, who last year were likely to see decline in same store
sales, are almost certain to see decline this year in the October
outlook (which include forecasts for November and December). Other
retailers that average a higher ticket price such as Nordstrom and
American Eagle are still forecasted for a decline in same store sales
versus 2008.

On the other hand, bright spots are the retailers with a discount
offering such as Aeropostale, Ross and TJX. All have moved from likely
to see an increase in same store sales in October 2008 to almost
certain to increase over the next six weeks.

"Tough economic conditions continue to be on the minds of consumers,"
says Prof. Greg Allenby, Fisher College of Business at Ohio State
University. "High quality isn't the place to be when budget
constraints become binding, and we're seeing this economic reality
play itself out in the retail sector."

To hear further discussion on same store sales forecasts through
December, join Prosper Technologies for a complimentary webinar event
on November 13th at Noon EST with Prof. Greg Allenby and Richard
Hastings (Consumer Strategist with Global Hunter Securities, LLC). To
register: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/399770818

For a complimentary 30-day trial of ForecastIQ(TM):
www.forecastiq.com

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ(TM) and expectations
for same store sales growth/decline through December follows:
Almost certain to see increase:    Almost certain to see decline:
Aeropostale                        Abercrombie & Fitch        Hot Topic
Ross                               Banana Republic            JC Penney
TJX                                Bonton                     Neiman Marcus
                                   Dillard's                  Stage
                                   Gap                        Wet Seal
Likely to see increase:            Likely to see decline:
Buckle                             Cato's
BJ's                               Children's Place
Fred's                             Nordstrom
                                   Saks
Flat:                              American Eagle
Costco

About ForecastIQ(TM)

ForecastIQ(TM) was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby
by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer
Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans
of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held
retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The
results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of
consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are
provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period and
also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in
the marketplace. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced
consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies

Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide
consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better
forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking
consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146

SOURCE: Prosper Technologies

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