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Not surprisingly, retailers with higher price points are expected to see declines this holiday season. Abercrombie & Fitch and Banana Republic, who last year were likely to see decline in same store sales, are almost certain to see decline this year in the October outlook (which include forecasts for November and December). Other retailers that average a higher ticket price such as Nordstrom and American Eagle are still forecasted for a decline in same store sales versus 2008.
On the other hand, bright spots are the retailers with a discount offering such as Aeropostale, Ross and TJX. All have moved from likely to see an increase in same store sales in October 2008 to almost certain to increase over the next six weeks.
"Tough economic conditions continue to be on the minds of consumers," says Prof. Greg Allenby, Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. "High quality isn't the place to be when budget constraints become binding, and we're seeing this economic reality play itself out in the retail sector."
To hear further discussion on same store sales forecasts through December, join Prosper Technologies for a complimentary webinar event on November 13th at Noon EST with Prof. Greg Allenby and Richard Hastings (Consumer Strategist with Global Hunter Securities, LLC). To register: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/399770818
For a complimentary 30-day trial of ForecastIQ(TM): www.forecastiq.com
A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ(TM) and expectations
for same store sales growth/decline through December follows:
Almost certain to see increase: Almost certain to see decline:
Aeropostale Abercrombie & Fitch Hot Topic
Ross Banana Republic JC Penney
TJX Bonton Neiman Marcus
Dillard's Stage
Gap Wet Seal
Likely to see increase: Likely to see decline:
Buckle Cato's
BJ's Children's Place
Fred's Nordstrom
Saks
Flat: American Eagle
Costco
About ForecastIQ(TM)
ForecastIQ(TM) was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.
About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.
Contact: Phil Rist 614-846-0146
SOURCE: Prosper Technologies
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