New book by Larry Connors Click here Improve your trading - See how
Mobile Operator Forecast on Argentina provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Argentina's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Argentina include: Telecom Argentina S.A., Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.), CTI (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.), and Nextel Communications Argentina S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Argentina's wireless market - +13.5% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
Positive ARPU growth across operators in the latest quarter - +7.3% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing in Argentina - +11.8% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
Argentina's operators enjoy strong EBITDA growth - +24.9% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Argentina to reach 50.3 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Argentina will increase from 43.6 million in 2008 to 50.3 million in 2013.
- We expect that CTI (America Movil) will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Argentina. Our model predicts that its subscriber base will increase from 15.2 million in 2008 to 17.1 million in 2013.
- We also forecast that Telecom Argentina will have 16.4 million subscribers, and Movistar Argentina will have 15.5 million subscribers in 2013.
- Despite its high ARPU level, Nextel will also be gaining subscribers over the next five years. We expect that Nextel will have 1.37 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.
Telecom Argentina's subscriber market share will be rising over the next five years
- Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Telecom Argentina's subscriber market share will increase from 28.8% in 2008 to 32.5% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we forecast that Movistar Argentina's market share will decline from 34.0% to 30.8% and CTI's market share will decline from 34.9% to 34.0% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in Argentina's wireless market will be stable from 2009 to 2013
- We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will change from ARS 40.15 in 2008 to ARS 42.10 in 2013.
- Our model predicts that CTI will continue to have the lowest ARPU level in the country with an expected monthly ARPU of ARS 33.77 in 2013.
- We expect that monthly ARPU at Telecom Argentina will rise slightly from ARS 40.48 to ARS 41.00 and monthly ARPU at Movistar Argentina will increase from ARS 40.04 to ARS 43.13 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- Nextel's ARPU level will remain the highest in Argentina with an expected monthly ARPU of ARS 151.09 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will improve for CTI and Movistar Argentina over the next five years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 32.9% in 2008 to 39.0% in 2013.
- We expect Movistar Argentina's EBITDA margin to improve from 32.2% to 37.0% and CTI's EBITDA margin to improve from 33.9% to 36.9% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- On the other hand, we forecast that Nextel's EBITDA margin will decline slightly from 30.8% in 2008 to 30.3% in 2013.
Companies Mentioned:
- Telecom Argentina S.A.
- Movistar Argentina (Telefonica S.A.)
- CTI (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)
- Nextel Communications Argentina S.A.
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0fa02d/3q09_argentina_mob
CONTACT: Laura Wood, Senior Manager, Research and Markets Fax: +1 646 607 1907 (US) Fax: +353 1 481 1716 (Rest of World) e-mail: press@researchandmarkets.com
((M2 Communications disclaims all liability for information provided within M2 PressWIRE. Data supplied by named party/parties. Further information on M2 PressWIRE can be obtained at http://www.presswire.net on the world wide web. Inquiries to info@m2.com.
More News:
Market Updates |
Stock Alerts |
All Trading News |
Stock Index
About TradingMarkets | Contact | Advertise | Careers | Link to Us | Site Map | Help | Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy | Return Policy | Testimonials | Feedback
The Connors Group, Inc. ("Company") is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. The analysts and employees or affiliates of Company may hold positions in the stocks, currencies or industries discussed here. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities and/or currencies. The Company, the authors, the publisher, and all affiliates of Company assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. Factual statements on the Company's website, or in its publications, are made as of the date stated and are subject to change without notice.
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any individual trader or trading system published by Company are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which be realized by you. In addition, the indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features of Company's products (collectively, the "Information") are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Examples presented on Company's website are for educational purposes only. Such set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the Information in making any investment. Rather, you should use the Information only as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor and tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING AND MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY BROKERAGE AND OTHER SLIPPAGE FEES. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
The Connors Group, Inc.
10 Exchange Place, Suite 1800
Jersey City, NJ 07302
© Copyright 2009 The Connors Group, Inc.
