Homebound flu victims could stymie Internet

Nov 03, 2009 (The Philadelphia Inquirer - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- CMCSA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Like many big organizations, Comcast Corp. is taking precautions to halt the spread of H1N1 flu. For one, it has distributed bottles of hand sanitizer to employees.

But Comcast, the nation's No. 1 residential Internet provider with 14 million high-speed subscribers, may have a bigger problem on its hands if the flu leads to rampant absenteeism by the nation's students and workers.

All those people could be on the Internet at home at the same time, a recent government report warned.

And that could lead to -- Internet meltdown.

Homebound workers and bored teenagers could overload the Internet with video game downloads and Web surfing and online shopping and Webcast viewing. Neighborhood telecommunication nodes that act as traffic cops for the Internet could be overwhelmed with torrents of data.

A Government Accountability Office report, released Oct. 26, says the Internet could slow dramatically if worker absenteeism reached 40 percent -- a reasonable speculation for a severe flu outbreak, the report said.

John Hausknecht, assistant professor of human resources at Cornell University, said the 40 percent estimate was five to 10 times the typical absentee rate and one never seen.

The Internet, with many more users home with the flu, could become so congested that functions critical to the economy, such as online banking or stock trading, might grind to a halt.

And the government could have trouble disseminating information about the pandemic itself over the Internet.

"Concerns exist that a more severe pandemic outbreak than [April] 2009's could cause large numbers of people staying home to increase their Internet use and overwhelm Internet providers' network capacities," the report said in summary.

Comcast, which has invested billions of dollars in its Internet service, says it was aware of the report and has contingency plans. Spokeswoman Jenni Moyer yesterday would not say what they were.

So far the cable giant hasn't noticed troubling Internet-usage spikes, even with recent school closings and student absenteeism in the Philadelphia area, one of its largest markets.

The company says the flu could infect different areas of the nation, or regions, at different times. So everybody won't be on their home Internet at the same time everywhere.

The government report notes that in an emergency authorities could seek to shut down video-sharing Web sites to ease Internet congestion.

Contact Bob Fernandez at 215-854-5897 or bob.fernandez@phillynews.com.

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