ForecastIQ(R): Don't Expect Big Bounce Back in Same Store Sales This Holiday
JWN | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- It appears that the downward spiral of same store sales growth has
stabilized according to the November ForecastIQ(R) (a service from
Prosper Technologies, LLC) as there is some improvement for
retailers. However, this isn't necessarily good news because the
majority of retailers tracked are likely/almost certain to see a
decrease in same store sales now through January.
Most of the positive movement year-over-year in retailer forecasts
was going from "almost certain" to see a decline in same store sales
to "likely" to see a decline; which although encouraging, doesn't
translate into growth. The retailers who moved up slightly to likely
to see a decline include: Nordstrom, Old Navy, Saks, American Eagle,
Bon-Ton and Wet Seal.
On the other hand, bright spots continue to be the retailers with a
discount offering. Ross and TJX are almost certain to see an increase
in same store sales over the next six weeks. Youth-oriented retailers
Aeropostale and Buckle are also poised to see an increase.
For a complimentary 30-day trial of ForecastIQ(TM):
www.forecastiq.com
A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ(TM) and
expectations for same store sales growth/decline through December
follows:
Almost certain to see increase: Almost certain to see decline:
------------------------------- ------------------------------
Buckle Abercrombie & Fitch JC Penney
Ross Dillard's Neiman Marcus
TJX Gap Stage
Hot Topic Steinmart
Likely to see increase: Likely to see decline:
----------------------- ----------------------
Aeropostale Cato's
BJ's Children's Place
Costco Nordstrom
Old Navy
Saks
Flat: American Eagle
----- Bon-Ton
Banana Republic Wet Seal
Fred's
About ForecastIQ(TM)
ForecastIQ(TM) was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby
by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch's monthly Consumer
Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans
of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held
retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The
results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of
consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are
provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period and
also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in
the marketplace. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced
consensus estimates.
About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide
consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better
forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking
consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.
Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146
SOURCE: BIGresearch
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