FirstAlert[tm] 11/28: Red Friday

Nov 28, 2008 (financialwire.net via COMTEX) -- TXI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- November 28, 2008 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) Black Friday, the all-important retailing barometer following Thanksgiving, has not yet arrived as this piece goes to press, but we can already say two things about it: This Black Friday is the most important one in recent memory, and it will take a miracle to open consumer pocketbooks this season. The day is always a harbinger of the strength of consumer confidence for the holiday season, and thus the entire retailing year. A big chunk of many retailers' yearly profits, as much as 50%, are made over the holidays, and Black Friday gives us a useful gauge of predicting holiday spending. But with the economy tanking and everyone looking for signs of how bad things will get in the new year, this year's Black Friday will be the most watched example of its kind in years. So many nervous eyes are on the American consumer. Decisions hang in the balance, big ones: whether to lay off workers, order new equipment, launch a new ad campaign, and buy or sell stocks, among others. What optimism remains for recovery in 2009 may be bolstered or dashed depending on consumer behavior this season. But the odds of a big holiday spend are not good. It won't be due to lack of trying on the part of retailers. CNNMoney's Parija B. Kavilanz finds them in a tense state of anticipation, with one source claiming that retailers are looking for a 3% drop in November to December gift buying this year. Another source tells Kavilanz it will be more like 6% to 8%. To gird against disaster, retailers are going beyond the normal Black Friday "doorbuster" gimmicks, and offering deep discounts from day one of the season. J.C. Penney is offering deep discounts on more than 400 categories of products in what it calls, "the most compelling Black Friday prices ever offered in the company's history." According to a Kavilanz source, retailers will be discounting as much as 75% off on Black Friday, an unprecedented figure for the kickoff to the holiday season, when consumers are usually less price sensitive and retail margins can be fattened. But retailers are fighting an equally strong rise of unease among consumers. According to Reuters, consumer confidence reached a 28-year low in November. Consumer spending saw its fourth straight monthly drop in October. Wall Street analysts were shocked by October's 6.2% plunge in orders for durable goods such as cars, machinery and computers. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers showed that consumer sentiment fell to 55.3 in November, from October's 57.6, reaching its lowest point since 1980. Asking consumers to spend feely this season is tantamount to asking them to deny reality. This fall's economic narrative has been characterized by panic and fear at the highest levels. For consumers, it has been a tale of escalating job losses, tighter credit and the sense that hard times will be here for the foreseeable future. The only "must have" item this holiday season is a steady job.

The Investrend Earnings Calendar features Frontline (NYSE: FRO), expected at $1.97; Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), expected at $0.88; Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI), expected at $0.26. The market will also be watching the Investrend Money Index Most Actives Gen Motors (NYSE: GM | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) up 35.11%.

The Investrend Economics Calendar lists Chicago PMI for November (9:45 a.m.), Early Market Close for Stocks & Bonds, Farm Prices for November (3 p.m.).

The Investrend Events Calendar showcases Credit Suisse Group Infrastructure Conference.

The Investrend Money Index is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ 50 Most Actives indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing. Last session's trading showed 48 advancers versus two decliners. Advancers were led by Gen Motors (NYSE: GM | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) up 35.11%, Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) up 29.52%, Dryships Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) up 21.97%, Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) up 15.95%, Flextronics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX) up 14.16%, Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) up 13.44%, Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) up 11.71%, Ishares Tr Ftse Indx (NYSE: FXI) up 11.55%, Activision Blizzard, Inc (NASDAQ: ATVI) up 10.28%, Amer Intl Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) up 10.17%, Companhia Vale Ads (NYSE: RIO) up 9.70%, Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) up 8.87%, Ultra Financials Pro (NYSE: UYG) up 8.65%, Proshares Ultra Qqq (NYSE: QLD) up 8.25%, Wachovia Cp (NYSE: WB) up 8.03%, Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) up 7.71%, Ml Co Cmn Stk (NYSE: MER) up 7.48%, Ultra S&P500 Proshrs (NYSE: SSO) up 6.73%, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) up 6.40%, Wells Fargo & Co New (NYSE: WFC) up 6.31%, Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) up 6.29%, Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) up 6.05%, Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) up 6.05%. Decliners followed Ps Utlrshrt Qqq (NYSE: QID) down 8.28%, Pt Ultrshrt Sp500 Ps (NYSE: SDS) down 6.92%.

Vote in the Investrend Poll Question of the Day at Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com).

Investrend Website of the Day: http://shop.vermontteddybear.com/

Quote of the Day: "If we have not quiet in our minds, outward comfort will do no more for us than a golden slipper on a gouty foot." John Bunyan

Today is: Albanian Independence day (1912); also known as Albanian Flag Day due to other national events that correspond to this day; Independence Day in Mauritania (1960); Ka Lahui: Hawaiian Independence Day (1843).

Happy Birthday: John Bunyan, John Wesley Hyatt, Claude Levi-Strauss, Hope Lange, Paul Warfield, Randy Newman, Anna Nicole Smith.

Today in History: After navigating through the South American strait, three ships under the command of Portuguese explorer Ferdinand Magellan reached the Pacific Ocean in 1520, becoming the first Europeans to sail from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific. In Stratford-upon-Avon, William Shakespeare and Anne Hathaway paid a 40-pound bond for their marriage license in 1582. The Kingdom of Hawai`i was officially recognized by the United Kingdom and France as an independent nation in 1843. First American automobile race, 54 miles from Chicago's Jackson Park to Evanston, Illinois, took place in 1895, with Frank Duryea winning in about 10 hours. NASA launched the Mariner 4 probe toward Mars in 1964. In 1984, 250 years after their deaths, William Penn and his wife Hannah Callowhill Penn were made Honorary Citizens of the United States.

[FirstAlert" was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com). The opinions expressed in FirstAlert" do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend.]

FinancialWire" is a fully independent, proprietary news wire service of Investrend Information (a division of Investrend Communications, Inc.). FinancialWire" news is written by professional journalists, dedicated to pure journalistic standards. FinancialWire" does not receive or accept any compensation from any individual or subject company (or representative thereof) for its news or opinions. All FinancialWire" news is available at http://www.financialwire.net . Please address any inquiries to feedback@financialwire.net .

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available at http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279 .

http://www.financialwire.net

More News:   Market Updates | Stock Alerts | All Trading News | Stock Index