Hydrogen Power To Have "Dominant Effect" On Transportation Industry, Study Shows

(RTTNews) - Hydrogen powered vehicles could potentially, in the best case scenario, result in the elimination of all oil from U.S. transportation over the next 50 years, a National Research Council study released Thursday revealed.

In a press call with reporters, the Department of Energy's Mike Ramage analyzed the findings of the study, which focused on the best case outcomes for the use of hydrogen energy by the year 2023. Best case means that "technical hurdles are solved - vehicles are cost- effective, and that consumers will buy them," Ramage said.

"In the best case, by 2023 hydrogen could be economically competitive," Ramage said.

The study was limited to the impact hydrogen would have, not assessing the possible impact of electric-powered vehicles, such as General Motors Chevy Volt, that many automakers expect to significantly impact the transportation industry. The study did not examine these vehicles due in part to the difficulty of predicting future performance of lithium batteries.

In the short term, over the next 15-20 years, Ramage urged the continued use of biofuels, noting that they "would have most likely impact on oil reduction and carbon dioxide reduction." However, as technology allows hydrogen to maximize its potential, hydrogen will overtake biofuels and have a "dominant effect" on the industry, Ramage said.

"Hydrogen by itself in this best case scenario could eliminate 60 - 70 percent of oil and carbon dioxide from transportation system by 2050," Ramage said. Combined with biofuels and other environmentally friendly solutions, Ramage said "you could potentially in the best case eliminate all oil from U.S. transportation."

However, the study was focused purely on best-case scenarios. Practically, Ramage suggested that the U.S. examine all options, structuring a plan that is diversified in alternative energy sources so that if one option failed there would be sufficient back-up.

The NRC study found that hydrogen could power a few million vehicles by 2020, 60 million vehicles by 2035, and would power 80 percent of new transportation fleet by 2050," Ramage said. Government support for hydrogen would include spending $50 billion over the next 15 years to bring down vehicle costs in order to allow hydrogen vehicles to become a self-sustaining market.

The ethanol subsidy, by contrast, will cost the U.S. government $160 billion over the next 15 years, Ramage said.

"The report basically indicates that the government needs to make decisions for the long haul," Ramage said.

Hydrogen fuel cells are around 10 years from commercialization, Ramage added.

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