"New Moon" Takes Center Stage, Should Post Big Opening Weekend

(RTTNews) - As only the eighth release of the year to be distributed to 4,000 or more theaters, "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" should be able to ride its wave of popularity into one of the biggest opening weekends of the year. Drama "The Blind Side" also gets a strong release at more than 3,000 theaters as does animated "Planet 51," although both will likely get overshadowed by the phenomenon of "The Twilight Saga."

Last year, "Twilight" was one of the biggest hits of the year, being the only release that cost less than $100 million to earn at least $190 million domestically. "Twilight" was also a hit in foreign markets as well, pushing its worldwide total to $383 million - a prodigious figure for a release that cost $37 million to produce. At only 3,419 theaters, "Twilight" also posted the fourth highest opening weekend of the year, bringing in $69 million in opening weekend revenue. Only "The Dark Knight," "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" and "Iron Man" earned more and each were released at 4,000 theaters.

This year, "New Moon" does get the appropriately sized release of more than 4,000 theaters and it could become just the second movie of 2009 to eclipse $100 million in its opening weekend. Though it may not reach the $108 million that "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" opened with this summer, "New Moon" is almost a lock to bring in more than "X-Men Origins: Wolverine," which has the second biggest opening of the year at $85 million.

The Sandra Bullock starring drama "The Blind Side" also gets a big release at more than 3,100 theaters this weekend. Bullock has already had a substantial hit this year in the romantic comedy genre with "The Proposal," so it will be interesting to see how audiences react to her in a more dramatic role. For adults not interested in "The Twilight Saga" or animated "Planet 51," "The Blind Side" could provide a nice alternative and an opening in the $15 to $17 million range seems likely.

With a PG rating, animated release "Planet 51" will have some competition from both PG-13 releases "2012" and "New Moon," which will likely limit its ability to have a big opening. Following a fairly disappointing opening weekend, "A Christmas Carol' has done very well since and should continue to command a high percentage of family audiences heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. With such overall competition, a weekend opening under $15 million appears to be realistic for "Planet 51."

The weekend will also bring a significant expansion for drama "Precious," which continues to post eye-popping per theater numbers from weekend to weekend. Last weekend, at less than 200 theaters, "Precious" earned more than $33,000 per venue - enough to put it in the box office top three. Now expanding to close to 700 sites, "Precious" should continue its success and will likely haul in somewhere in the $12 to $15 million range, with future expansions likely in following weeks.

After an impressive $65 million opening, disaster epic "2012" will likely see a substantial slide but should easily be the second biggest overall weekend draw. With a second weekend intake in the $30 million range, "2012" will move well over $100 million domestically thus far and should continue its enormous international success as well.

An eclectic set of new releases open this upcoming Wednesday, all aimed at predominately different demographics. Action/thriller "Ninja Assassin" opens wide with an R-rating and should appeal to older teenagers and typical action audiences. R-rated apocalyptic drama "The Road" also opens wide and stars Viggo Mortensen in an adaptation from acclaimed novelist Cormac McCarthy, who also wrote the novel "No Country For Old Men."

Director Walter Becker follows up his smash hit "Wild Hogs" from 2007 with the release of the John Travolta starring "Old Dogs," which also stars Robin Williams and Seth Green. Expanding to more than 2,000 theaters will also be director Wes Anderson's "The Fantastic Mr. Fox," a rare animated release aimed more at adult audiences.

RTT Box Office Estimates For 11/20 - 11/22 in millions:

1) The Twilight Saga: New Moon (Summit Entertainment): $95

2) 2012 (Sony/Columbia): $30

3) The Blind Side (Warner Brothers): $16.5

4) A Christmas Carol (Buena Vista): $16

5) Planet 51 (Sony/Columbia): $14

6) Precious (Lionsgate): $13

7) The Men Who Stare At Goats (Overture): $3.5

8) Michael Jackson's This Is It (Sony/Columbia): $3

9) Couples Retreat (Universal): $2.7

10) Law Abiding Citizen (Overture): $2.4

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com
Copyright(c) 2009 RTTNews.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved