Quantcast
  Free Trial!
  Today’s Best Stocks To Trade!   
Click Here


Quote


Stocks

Trading Ideas

Short Term
Long Term
All Trading Ideas


Trading Lessons

Strategies
Courses
Interviews
Glossary
All Trading Lessons


Daily Stock Setups

Connors Daily Battle Plan
Haggerty Professional
Kaltbaum Intra-day Set-ups
Short Term PowerRatings
Long Term PowerRatings
TM Indicators


Trading News

Markets Updates
Technical Alerts
Breaking News


PowerRatings

Short Term
Long Term
Charts


Indicators

Stocks
Market Bias


Quotes

Markets
Stocks
Charts
Level II
Historical Data
Options


Trading Contests

Up or Down




TradingMarkets Monday Stock Movers
By David Penn | TradingMarkets.com | May 5, 2008
Stocks RSS

Today's look at the stocks making the biggest moves in recent days reveals a market loaded with weak stocks that look to have moved too far too fast to the upside.

The market's weakness on Monday, as news that Microsoft will walk away from its proposed acquisition of Yahoo, offers an opportunity for traders looking to bet against weak, overbought stocks. These are the stocks that are trading below their 200-day moving averages, but have been in rally mode for the past several days or few weeks.

Our research into short term stock price behavior suggests strongly that these are the stocks—rather than the stronger ones - that traders looking to bet against stocks should focus on. Such stocks have the two key ingredients which we have learned are critical for traders looking for stocks that are vulnerable to reversal to the downside.

The first ingredient is that the stock be weak. If you are going to bet against a stock, then wouldn't it make more sense to bet against a stock that is weak than one that is strong? The answer may seem obvious, but there are far too many traders taking "lottery trades" by betting against strong stocks, stock trading above their 200-day moving averages and making new highs. Like a lottery ticket, these trades can pay off big when they work. But, also like lottery tickets, those trades are more often a waste of time and, more importantly, money.

The second ingredient is temporary strength. We want to find instances when weak stocks are acting as if they are strong stocks. That, we have found, is the best time to bet against them.

There are a number of ways in which a weak stock can act like a strong stock. One of them occurs when a weak stock, a stock that is trading below its 200-day moving average, rallies by 10% or more in a few days. This is the particular characteristic of all five stocks in today's Monday Stock Movers.

We found that stocks that were trading below their 200-day moving averages, and were up by 10% or more within five days, actually produced negative returns in one-day, two-day and one-week time frames.

To read more about our research into trading stocks that have advanced by 10% or more in five days, click here.

And when combined with stocks that have the sort of low Short Term PowerRatings of the stocks in today's report, we have a set of interesting opportunities for traders looking to bet against stocks.

All the stocks in today's report have Short Term PowerRatings of 1. Our research, which involved millions and millions of simulated short term stock trades between 1995 and 2007, indicated that stocks with Short Term PowerRatings of 1 actually underperformed the average stock by a margin of nearly 5 to 1 within five days. This performance history makes stocks with Short Term PowerRatings among the most attractive candidates for traders looking to bet against stocks by selling short.

Note also the 2-period Relative Strength Period (RSI) values accompanying each stock. We use the 2-period RSI to determine when a market has become overbought after moving too far too fast to the upside. Stocks with 2-period RSIs of more than 90 are considered overbought, with stocks that have 2-period RSIs of more than 98 being extremely overbought and often warranting immediate trader attention.

Bon-Ton Stores (BONT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 1. RSI(2): 98.49

Huaneng Power International Inc. (HNP | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 1. RSI(2): 99.22

Integrated Device Technology (IDTI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 1. RSI(2): 98.98

Obagi Medical Products (OMPI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 1. RSI(2): 99.96

Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 1. RSI(2): 99.21

Does your stock trading need a tune-up? Read our special, Free Report, "5 Secrets to Short Term Stock Trading Success" for a refresher course on not just why to buy low and sell high, but specifically how you can use intraday weakness in the market to do so. Click here to get your copy of "5 Secrets to Short Term Stock Trading Success" or call us today at 888-484-8220.

David Penn is Senior Editor for TradingMarkets.com.


Stocks RSS
Related Articles

PREMIER SPONSORED LINKS
TRADE CENTER

The TradingMarkets Directory
Stocks
Quotes
Charts
How to Trade
Commentary and Analysis
PowerRatings
Training Classes
Tools
Stock Scanner
Daily Market Bias

Options
Quotes
Charts
How to Trade
Commentary and Analysis

Forex
How to Trade
Forex Momentum Index
Pivots

E-mini/Futures
Quotes
Charts
How to Trade
Daily Market Bias

How to Trade
Stocks
Options
Forex
E-mini/Futures
Glossary

Tools
Short Term PowerRatings
Long Term PowerRatings
Stock Screener
Quotes & Charts
Stock Indicators
Market bias Indicators

PowerRatings
Short Term PowerRatings
Long Term PowerRatings
Industry PowerRatings
PowerRatings Charts
Training Classes
PowerRatings Strategies
Search PowerRatings

Trading Contests
Up or Down Stock Contest
#1 - Win $1000 every month

Up or Down Forex Contest -
Win $1000 every month


Premium Subscription Services
Short Term PowerRatings Free Trial
Long Term PowerRatings Free Trial
TradingMarkets Subscription Free Trial
Daily Battle Plan Free Trial
Gary Kaltbaum - Intraday Breaking Alerts Free Trial
Kevin Haggerty Professional Trading Service Free Trial
Forex Force with Mark Whistler Free Trial

RELATED SITES
Nothing but forex



All analyst commentary provided on TradingMarkets.com is provided for educational purposes only. The analysts and employees or affiliates of TradingMarkets.com may hold positions in the stocks or industries discussed here. This information is NOT a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Your use of this and all information contained on TradingMarkets.com is governed by the Terms and Conditions of Use. Please click the link to view those terms. Follow this link to read our Editorial Policy.

© 2008 The Connors Group, Inc.