Quantcast
  Free Trial!
  Today’s Best Stocks!  Click Here


Quote


Stocks

Trading Ideas

Short Term
Long Term
All Trading Ideas


Trading Lessons

Strategies
Courses
Interviews
Glossary
All Trading Lessons


Daily Stock Setups

Connors Daily Battle Plan
Haggerty Professional
Kaltbaum Intra-day Set-ups
Short Term PowerRatings
Long Term PowerRatings
TM Indicators


Trading News

Markets Updates
Technical Alerts
Breaking News


PowerRatings

Short Term
Long Term
Charts


Indicators

Stocks
Market Bias


Quotes

Markets
Stocks
Charts
Level II
Historical Data
Options


Trading Contests

Up or Down




Fair Value and Short Term Stock Trading
By Dave Goodboy | TradingMarkets.com | April 16, 2008
Stocks RSS

Traders often misunderstand or simply do not know about the importantance of Fair Value. This article will explain the concept of Fair Value, show why Fair Value is important, and how you can use Fair Value to develop a real trading edge.

The key to keep in mind is that Fair Value is one of the factors that triggers institutional buy/sell programs. Therefore, it is critical to have an understanding of this concept. Knowing if the program trading that is often based on signals from Fair Value will be primarily focused on the sell side or buy side for the day is crucial information for the day trader.

Let's start with the basic definition of Fair Value. Fair Value in its most basic form is the value of the Standard and Poors' 500 Index (S&P 500) plus the interest required to buy all 500 of the stocks minus the dividend checks paid by these stocks. CNBC often lists the Fair Value figure on the upper ticker on your TV prior to the opening bell at 9:30 EST.

There is some debate over the accuracy of the CNBC number, and you should be aware that this debate exists. But it's not relevant for this article.

That's all well and good, but just why do I need to know this?

Here is why: index arbitrage programs are based on the concept of Fair Value. These index arbitrage programs are normally institutional trading strategies that take advantage of the spread between the futures price and the cash index. They do this by buying one and selling the other to capture the difference as profit.

Sometimes over 70% of the NYSE volume is attributable to program trading, therefore the importance of understanding how it works is obvious.

The spread between the futures and cash index is called the Premium or PREM for short. One can obtain the PREM figure on most charting platforms such as E-Signal. PREM usually ranges between -$5.00 and +$5.00.

When the PREM reaches extreme levels, institutional buy/sell programs often kick in, throwing the stock market in one direction or the other. When you observe a stock or index turning on a dime, when you least expect it, this can be the result of institutional programs being triggered by the PREM. For example, on the day that I'm writing this, the PREM for the SP 500 is $1.45, and it is postulated that buy programs were set at $3.35 and sell programs at -$.55.

Stock day traders would be well advised to keep abreast of these figures and watch the PREM while trading. If the numbers are hit, and the corresponding move begins, it is highly likely the move will continue. Knowing this information provides a real edge to the stock day trader.

Dave Goodboy is Vice President of Marketing for a New York City based multi-strategy fund.


Stocks RSS
Related Articles

PREMIER SPONSORED LINKS
TRADE CENTER

The TradingMarkets Directory
Stocks
Quotes
Charts
How to Trade
Commentary and Analysis
PowerRatings
Training Classes
Tools
Stock Scanner
Daily Market Bias

Options
Quotes
Charts
How to Trade
Commentary and Analysis

Forex
How to Trade
Forex Momentum Index
Pivots

E-mini/Futures
Quotes
Charts
How to Trade
Daily Market Bias

How to Trade
Stocks
Options
Forex
E-mini/Futures
Glossary

Tools
Short Term PowerRatings
Long Term PowerRatings
Stock Screener
Quotes & Charts
Stock Indicators
Market bias Indicators

PowerRatings
Short Term PowerRatings
Long Term PowerRatings
Industry PowerRatings
PowerRatings Charts
Training Classes
PowerRatings Strategies
Search PowerRatings

Trading Contests
Up or Down Stock Contest
#1 - Win $1000 every month

Up or Down Forex Contest -
Win $1000 every month


Premium Subscription Services
Short Term PowerRatings Free Trial
Long Term PowerRatings Free Trial
TradingMarkets Subscription Free Trial
Daily Battle Plan Free Trial
Gary Kaltbaum - Intraday Breaking Alerts Free Trial
Kevin Haggerty Professional Trading Service Free Trial
Forex Force with Mark Whistler Free Trial

RELATED SITES
Nothing but forex





All analyst commentary provided on TradingMarkets.com is provided for educational purposes only. The analysts and employees or affiliates of TradingMarkets.com may hold positions in the stocks or industries discussed here. This information is NOT a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Your use of this and all information contained on TradingMarkets.com is governed by the Terms and Conditions of Use. Please click the link to view those terms. Follow this link to read our Editorial Policy.

© 2008 The Connors Group, Inc.