Quantcast
  Free Trial!
  Today’s Best Stocks To Trade!   


Quote


Stocks

Trading Ideas

Short Term
Long Term
All Trading Ideas


Trading Lessons

Strategies
Courses
Interviews
Glossary
All Trading Lessons


Daily Stock Setups

Connors Daily Battle Plan
Haggerty Professional
Kaltbaum Intra-day Set-ups
Short Term PowerRatings
Long Term PowerRatings
TM Indicators


Trading News

Markets Updates
Technical Alerts
Breaking News


PowerRatings

Short Term
Long Term
Charts


Indicators

Stocks
Market Bias


Quotes

Markets
Stocks
Charts
Level II
Historical Data
Options


Trading Contests

Up or Down




PowerRatings Danger Zone: 5 Overbought Stocks for Traders
By David Penn | TradingMarkets.com | May 15, 2008
Stocks RSS

The markets finished the day on Wednesday off their highs, a warning that momentum to the upside might not be as strong as suspected. Here are five ways to take advantage of a market rally that may have run its course for the time being.

When stocks in general are moving higher, it often affords short term stock traders with the opportunity to focus not so much on stocks that are breaking out, but more on stocks that may be hinting that they are about to breakdown.

As buyers of weakness and sellers of strength, we are not especially interested in the moves that stocks have ALREADY made. We are more interested in the moves that stocks WILL make. This is in large part why we look to buy stocks when markets in general are moving lower, and look to sell stocks when markets are moving higher.

Which stocks do we look to sell when markets are moving higher? We target weak stocks, stocks that are trading below their 200-day moving averages. Our research, most recently in Larry Connors short term trading primer, How Markets Really Work, indicates that stocks that are trading below their 200-day moving averages tend to underperform the average stock. We have found it far more effective to bet against stocks trading below their 200-day moving average rather than betting against stronger stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages.

Once we have isolated the weak stocks from the strong stocks, how do we know when those weak stocks are at their most vulnerable to reversal? One of our favorite and most effective tools is the 2-period Relative Strength Index (RSI).

How does the 2-period RSI work? We use the RSI to determine how overbought a stock is. When a stock achieves a 2-period RSI of more than 90, we begin to keep an eye on the stock as a potentially overbought stock that may be ripe for reversal. When that stock's RSI climbs even higher, toward the 98 level, then we become especially interested in the stock. Our research indicates that stocks with 2-period RSIs of more than 98 have tended to underperform in one-day, two-day and one-week timeframes.

And when coupled with low Short Term PowerRatings, stocks with high 2-period RSI readings can be among the best opportunities for traders looking to bet against stocks that have moved too far too fast.

All five stocks in today's report have Short Term PowerRatings of 1 or 2. Our research into short term stock price behavior indicates that stocks with low Short Term PowerRatings have tended to underperform the average stock by significant margins. Stocks with Short Term PowerRatings of 2 have performed worse than the average stock after five days, and stocks with Short Term PowerRatings of 1 have actually trailed the average stock by a margin of nearly 5 to 1 over the same time period.

In addition to the Short Term PowerRatings and 2-period Relative Strength Index values accompanying each stock, I have noted the 100-period historical volatility values, as well. All else equal, stocks with higher HV(100) have shown the greater capacity for price movement in the short term.

Commvault Systems Inc.(CVLT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRatings 2. RSI(2) 99.79. HV(100): 68.20

Global Cash Access Holdings (GCA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRatings 2. RSI(2): 99.11. HV(100): 101.01

The Pantry Inc. (PTRY | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 2. RSI(2): 99.03. HV(100): 91.77

Vasco Data Security International (VDSI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 2. RSI(2): 99.53. HV(100): 107.79

Powerwave Technologies (PWAV | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 1. RSI(2): 99.51. HV(100): 80.68

Does your stock trading need a tune-up? Our highest Short Term PowerRatings stocks have outperformed the average stock by a margin of nearly 17 to 1 after five days.

Click here to start your free, 7-day trial to our Short Term PowerRatings today!

Whether you have a trading strategy of your own that could use a boost or are looking for a way to tell the stocks that will move higher in the short term from the stocks that are more likely to disappoint, our Short Term PowerRatings are based on more than a decade of quantified, backtested simulated stock trades involving millions of stocks between 1995 and 2007. Click the link above or call us at 888-484-8220, extension 1, and start your free trial today.

David Penn is Senior Editor for TradingMarkets.com.


Stocks RSS
Related Articles

PREMIER SPONSORED LINKS
TRADE CENTER

The TradingMarkets Directory
Stocks
Quotes
Charts
How to Trade
Commentary and Analysis
PowerRatings
Training Classes
Tools
Stock Scanner
Daily Market Bias

Options
Quotes
Charts
How to Trade
Commentary and Analysis

Forex
How to Trade
Forex Momentum Index
Pivots

E-mini/Futures
Quotes
Charts
How to Trade
Daily Market Bias

How to Trade
Stocks
Options
Forex
E-mini/Futures
Glossary

Tools
Short Term PowerRatings
Long Term PowerRatings
Stock Screener
Quotes & Charts
Stock Indicators
Market bias Indicators

PowerRatings
Short Term PowerRatings
Long Term PowerRatings
Industry PowerRatings
PowerRatings Charts
Training Classes
PowerRatings Strategies
Search PowerRatings

Trading Contests
Up or Down Stock Contest
#1 - Win $1000 every month

Up or Down Forex Contest -
Win $1000 every month


Premium Subscription Services
Short Term PowerRatings Free Trial
Long Term PowerRatings Free Trial
TradingMarkets Subscription Free Trial
Daily Battle Plan Free Trial
Gary Kaltbaum - Intraday Breaking Alerts Free Trial
Kevin Haggerty Professional Trading Service Free Trial
Forex Force with Mark Whistler Free Trial

RELATED SITES
Nothing but forex





All analyst commentary provided on TradingMarkets.com is provided for educational purposes only. The analysts and employees or affiliates of TradingMarkets.com may hold positions in the stocks or industries discussed here. This information is NOT a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Your use of this and all information contained on TradingMarkets.com is governed by the Terms and Conditions of Use. Please click the link to view those terms. Follow this link to read our Editorial Policy.

© 2008 The Connors Group, Inc.