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Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"...a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
Most of my stance has not changed. A few have.
I am still bearish on anything INTEREST-RATE sensitive. INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVE areas I am bearish on are HOUSING, UTILITIES, REITS, REGIONAL BANKS, S&LS most FINANCIALS, LENDERS and most BROKERS. In fact, BROKERS and FINANCIALS are now imploding. Even the almighty Goldman is now breaking down off of a top. I am also seeing major tops in place for names like MER,BSC,LEH,C,JPM and others. The good news...and amazingly so, the market has continued higher in spite. In the past, action like we are seeing in the FINANCIALS has always been a harbinger of some ugly to come.
I am also in the bearish camp on INSURANCE, COAL, DRUGS, BIOTECH, RESTAURANTS and many RETAILERS.
I continue to love recent action in leading growth names...many of the names I have mentioned to you in the past...names like AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, FWLT, AMZN, RIMM, CROX, MA, FFIV and others. I have been trained to pay attention to these leading names...because of they continue to do well, markets usually hold up.
A couple of weeks ago, i told you I loved the set ups in the SEMICONDUCTORS...though I did not like the fundamentals. SEMICONDUCTORS have ramped...and ramped hard. The SOX broke out at 513 and has moved straight up. INTEL (the puke) threw a little sand on the fire with their putrid earning's report.
My stance has changed on GOLD/SILVER. For the first time in quite a while, the stocks are now outperforming the metal. This is normally a bullish occurrence. This change occurred on the high volume day of July 6.
OILS continue to be the bull of the woods. Every time I think they are going to stall and correct, they stall and correct for a day...and then turn up. They remain in full bull mode...but did want to add a decent amount of names are running into some trouble as they break the 50 day average.
Nothwithstanding today's ugly action, the major indices' charts look fine...but again, you cannot throw darts. If you are over weighted in FINANCIALS, BROKERS and RETAIL, you are losing money. It is crucial you recognize what areas are NOT doing the job.
Lastly, as you know, I have been relentless in my rhetoric about the total lack of oversight in the markets. There is not a day that goes by that I am not blasting the Fed, the regulators, the overseers and the ratings agency for NOT doing their job. Oversight is oversight...whether there are problems or not. The police should not show up only AFTER there are major problems.I have a few questions.
How was Bear Stearns able to buy and sell their own mess back to Bear Stearns...and price it at THEIR OWN arbitrary price?
What was the formula these funds used to price these bonds?
Why is the rest of Wall Street and the hedge fund community NOT being forced to mark prices correctly?
Why were these funds able to use 90% margin?
How many sleeping pills were the rating's agencies taking while all this was going on?
How much money have these rating's agencies been paid for these timely downgrades?
What is the total amount of bonds that are out there?
I can go on and on. It seems to me Wall Street and regulators did not learn any lessons from the last mess that occurred in 99 when overly greedy people went too far in order to make money too fast. Why is it that only after billions are lost do the police show up? These are all questions that will be forced to be answered sooner rather than later...hopefully!
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