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Home » Stocks » Commentary

Time To Be Defensive

By Gary Kaltbaum | TradingMarkets.com | July 27, 2007

Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with
over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary
is the author of href="http://www.tradingmarkets.com/tmu/store.site/swingtrading/Books/6026/"
>The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally
syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also
editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"...a weekly and monthly
technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you
would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts

href="http://www.tradingmarkets.com/subscriptions/details.cfm?item=5736&subcat=st">
click here

or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.

Oh...so now there are subprime problems...so now there are housing problems.
As I have said, there are no problems until the market starts heading down.

The amazing thing about Thursday's action was the reaction. Most thought the
poor action just started. The poor action has been going on for weeks despite
the DOW hitting 14,000. As I told you, the market was getting thinner and
thinner...new lows were expanding markedly while new highs were
contracting...small caps and mid caps were breaking down...and the average stock
was getting klonked. This week, it was time for big caps to play catch-up.

Now what? Not sure. Markets are short term oversold and extended to the
downside but if we are indeed in some trouble here, oversold can get more
oversold. All I know is that too many stocks and sectors have topped...and I
don't think they have a chance to just turn around.

I do have a couple of predictions. First, I think you are going to see all
the minions out in force...telling you everything is ok. Paulson was out again
Thursday saying subprime is not a problem. This man is turning into a classic
case of the "boy who cried wolf." If he keeps this up, there will come a point
where the market turns a deaf ear. The market actually turned a bit after he
yapped. Secondly, with any more ugly, I expect Gentle Ben to throw in a rate cut
as Gentle Ben does not want the market to go down.

I will have a much bigger report on Monday. I just wanted to make note that
the confirmed rally has ended. Investors Business Daily as well as myself
believe the market is now in corrective mode and until the market experiences
another follow through day like March 21, it is time to be defensive.

Original publication: July 27, 2007

>> See more articles by Gary Kaltbaum

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