Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"...a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.

Just a little note! It is Thanksgiving week. I ask you to consider doing something for someone you need absolutely nothing from.

You may not know this but years ending in "7" have historically been a top in the market. On most of these occasions, the top led to a full blown bear market. I will always deal with what is in front of me right now...but I also believe the market rhymes. Here are the numbers. The average of these sell offs is 27%. Meaningless trivia or meaningful?

1917 ==> -40.1%
1927 ==> -10.2%
1937 ==> -49.1%
1947 ==> -24.0%
1957 ==> -19.4%
1967 ==> -25.2%
1977 ==> -26.9%
1987 ==> -35.1%
1997 ==> -13.2%

Nothing has changed. The many bear market sectors I have outlined for you...just keep getting worse. The few bull market sectors which include bigcap TECH, SHIPPERS, OILS, COMMODITIES just recently topped...thus the recent ugly. Whenever these areas get in trouble, it is good-night time. The good news is that the FERTILIZERS and the SOLARS remain just fine...especially the SOLARS...which is now the leading group in the market. I now add another bull area...and that is the DEFENSIVE issues. I am talking BEVERAGE, HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS, TOBACCO, FOOD and the like. It is obvious these areas are now getting the bid because the market is now forecasting a major slowdown. In fact, I am now on record that the 4th quarter GDP will be close to flat...and maybe even negative. You might will also see the unemployment rate start to tick up.

This week has seasonal strength into the holidays. Notwithstanding another confession out of Fantasyland...I mean the FINANCIALS...I am expecting markets to be bid a bit here...but that does not change anything in all the bearish areas. And if the market cannot get a bid this week...then fuggedaboutit.

A break below recent lows will only add to the ugly. The TRANSPORTS are already there. Those who have followed my radio show, tv appearances as well as this report know that I was in front of the housing and credit problem over 2 years ago. I am going to make another "not so pretty" prediction here. I believe at least one publicly traded housing company is going to file bankruptcy in the next few months. I have been reading the financials as well as the statistics in the housing business...and I am sorry to say...it is that bad! The good news...it is going to be opportunity time for anyone with good timing and a keen eye. Multi-millionaires have been made throughout the years in real estate by buying when things look their bleakest. I do not believe we are there yet or even close. Be patient!

Gary Kaltbaum