Characteristics of a Bear Market

Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"...a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.

"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to ruin it."

This is one of my favorite quotes from Warren Buffett...one that keeps me on my toes at all times. I was thinking of this quote as I watched all the pundits discuss the latest news out of Citigroup....and I must tell you, maybe I missed something, but no one talked about how this company, amongst other financial giants, had completely destroyed its reputation. While I sat watching a couple of pundits explaining that Citi was a value and should be looked at, I kept thinking to myself that these people do not get it. Forget the fact that Einstein could not figure out Citi's financials. For me, the words CREDIBILITY and TRUST have to be at the top of the list before I commit any of the millions that I manage. Since I would trust Bonnie and Clyde before I trust anything out of the mouths of Citi, I believe they tried to pull another fast one on the street. Did any of you notice that for several days, the word was out that Citi was going to write down another $24 billion? Where do you think that number came from? You guessed it. I believe this was planted in order for Citi to come in with $18 billion to make things look better. Yes...I believe they are that bad. My overall take...Citi should have cut out the dividend completely. Why pay a dividend when you are profitless and why pay a dividend out of raised funds? I am also of the belief there is more losses to come. As I have stated on many an occasion, I believe Citi is headed for the teens.

We now head into Wednesday with an Intel blow-up and futures yonked. Recent lows will be undercut on the open. Whether or not a panic near-term low could be put in off this news...I just don't know...but with so many bearish converts, I would not be surprised. But the most important point I need to make is that this classic bear market is gaining teeth...and I am in hopes you have been listening. A few more notes:

OILS look to have topped. The OIH just broke the longer-term 200 day moving average for the first time in 10 months. This will not help if it continues.

A classic characteristic of a bear is good news is still sold and bad news kills. Did you notice APPLE on Tuesday? It absolutely blew up on a speech by the head honcho, top dog, big cheese at the MACWORLD get-together. In a bull market, the stock would have been up $10.

I am literally finding nothing but short set-ups here. It is that bad. Just about all leadership is gone. Even the strong AG/FERTILIZER group looks like it hit the wall.

So, no changes. This ain't no hill for a climber. This is occurring in spite of an easy Fed who all but said more major rate cuts are ahead.

Gary Kaltbaum