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Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"...a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
Rick Santelli gets the Wall Street man of the week award. If you don't know why, look it up.
Rudy Giuliani's campaign manager shouldn't be running a lemonade stand. What was he thinking?
Clintons = lowlifes. They can't even hide their sleaze...and against one in their own party. Kudos to those in their own party that are slamming their sleazeball tactics. Talk about people who should not be running a lemonade stand!
Several months ago, in front of more than 1 million people on Fox News Channel, I stated John McCain would be out of the presidential race within a month. Did I tell you I also bet on Custer?
Upon agreeing to the stimulus proposal, a certain politician said this..."economists estimate that each dollar of broad tax cuts leads to $1.26 in economic growth!" Nope...not from Bush...not from Romney...not from Paulsen...BUT from Nancy Pelosi. I hope she remembers what she said when we get around to making the tax cuts permanent.
SoGen says a low level something or other was able to lose $7 billion without anyone knowing about it. If you believe that, I have a few condos for sale in Miami that you just need to buy. I GUARANTEE THERE ARE OTHERS INVOLVED!
Eli Manning was on the front cover of Sports Illustrated. CRAP!
I will have a bigger report on the market after the Fed...AKA Hear no evil...see no eveil...speak no evil...meets in a room...plays a little Nintendo and then lowers rates another half point because "we are not predicting recession at this time!" But I did want to make note of a few things.
As I told you, down legs in bear markets end with heavy volume reversals just to suck out the last sellers at the most inopportune time. That occurred on Wednesday. But amazingly, many were already out calling THE bottom of the bear market. Some of these pundits have called the bottom about 10 times in the past few months. This is folly. In my study of bear markets, you need to know that they just don't end in one day...but go through a process of bottoming over time. I just do not believe we are there yet. I have no idea about price and time but I do know how bear markets end...and they certainly do not end when many are calling the bottom. So...like my good guess of an imminent reversal, here is my next guess based on my studies of characteristics of bear markets. I suspect we're going to see what I call ABC-type action where the A move was the first move off the low, which may have just ended...the B move is the next move down, which probably started on Friday's reversal...and the C move which is another rally which may or may not take the market back above recent highs. Just keep in mind, this rally only serves to work off the very extended and oversold condition the market created on its drop. So...while I believe the recent reversal low could hold near term, I am not so sure we are out of the woods. There are just too many stocks and sectors that are horror shows. The last point I want to make is about Friday's action. The market opened up in a frenzy with many heralding Microsoft and its earnings as a reason to NOW BUY TECH! By the end of the day, those people were back in their caves. If there is anything you need to know about bear markets, it was all encapsulated in Friday's action as a frenzied open failed and failed miserably and "good news" in Microsoft was sold off. This type of action does not occur in bull markets. In bull markets, "good news" like that is bought and bought and bought. Learn this characteristic. It is right there for you to understand. In bull markets, bad news still gets bought and good news is bought with a fervor. In bear markets, good news is sold and bad news is crushed.
Lastly, I have received numerous emails asking what happens if the market decides to have a follow through day this week...a day where a major index goes up 1.7% on heavier volume. Simple...IBD will say we are back in a confirmed rally...which I adhere to. BUT...that does not mean you just go and buy. Many of these days fail in bear markets...especially when there are no bases to buy off of. Right now, there is zippo when it comes to bases...and frankly, many things are still breaking down. So, regardless, there will be not much to do.
Gary Kaltbaum
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