Is There a Yen/Bond Correlation?

Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"...a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.

A good buddy of mine visited the Money Show here in Orlando. He told me 9 out of 10 questions were on inverse ETFS as everyone was bearish. HMMM!

I have been taught...in a bear market, do not buy anything until a follow through day occurs...and that only gets you to start looking. But I do a lot more. I am constantly on the lookout for things that show up in advance. I am constantly looking for an edge by looking harder and longer than most. I have always believed my edge is that I look for things most don't look for and those that do, do not know what they find anyhow. I found something today that may or may not be important. But for me, sticks out like a very sore thumb.

Get a chart of the long bond. (TLT) It put in a low on 10/17. It topped on 10/26. It put in another low on 12/26. It reversed off the highs on 1/23.

Get a chart of the YEN. (FXY) It put in a low on 10/17. It topped on 11/26. It put in another low on 12/26. It reversed off the highs on 1/23.

Get a chart of any major index...but for now, let's use the DOW. It put in a top on 10/17. It put in a low on 11/26. It put in another top on 12/26. It reversed off the lows on 1/23.

As you can see there has recently been a direct correlation between the YEN and the BOND...and the MARKET doing the exact opposite. I bring this up now because the YEN looks like it is topping here and the BOND broke below first support as well as the 50 day average. The question is...will the market continue to follow suit and rally from here against the tops in the yen and the bond market? Just food for thought. I believe in watching direct correlations in the market. For sure, correlations only last so long...but so far, this one has been picture perfect. For me, until I get a confirming follow through, I cannot plow in. That's just me. Maybe the market just bounces up like it has done many times in this bear phase. I just think it is going to be interesting to see if the market rallies off this again. I would not be surprised.

That doesn't change the fact that everything...and I mean everything...is trading below resistance as well as all long term and short term moving averages. Protect capital!

Gary Kaltbaum