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Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"... a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
Before I get into the technicals, a few things to ponder:
Why is GE having to raise more capital? Is GE just another company who has lied about the condition they are in?
Is CITI next? As you know, I have been calling for single digits in CITI for months. Man...did I get flak for that one! Not anymore. The problem for CITI is not what I think - but as always - what the market thinks. The market forced FNM, FRE, AIG, LEH, BSC and the rest's hand. CITI is acting like the rest of the cadavers. I think there is a decent chance CITI is next. I cannot believe I am saying that. Prince Alwaleed cannot be a happy man.
Yesterday's nonsense on Capital Hill is symbolic of corporate culture run amok. How these imbeciles can fly on private planes to ask for money is beyond reason. I must also say I get sick to my stomach every time I see Bob Nardelli...who walked into Home Depot, took out about $250 million...left the company's culture in shambles...and immediately gets a job running Chrysler.
The credit markets are locked up, do not believe the pundits that are saying credit markets are thawing. All one has to do is see the plunge in U.S. Treasury rates. The latest move was set off by the bumbling, mumbling, stumbling and pitiful fool named Paulson, who publicly announced he changed his mind. This TARP vote will go down in history as one of the stupidest yes votes in history, and I am proud I was against it vociferously. (I think that is a word!)
It continues to amaze me how easily so many fell for this crap when it was proposed by one of the people who caused all these problems. Again, Paulson lobbied this same Congress years ago to raise the leverage for companies like Goldman Sachs...and of course, Paulson ran Goldman Sachs. This was an easy puzzle to put together. Paulson actually argued that "the financial markets are much more stable today than before the TARP". Who is he trying to kid? ABX and CMBX spreads are predicting a not so nice outcome. I gather this man is counting down the days when he can get out of this job.
Every major index (except the DOW) has broken into new bear market low ground. The DOW always holds best during these drops as money parks itself into megacap companies that pervade the DOW. The only good news here is that the thousands of bottom callers will finally be shut up. The bad news is that the internals are horrid...and buying continues to be anemic into the massive supply of stock that keeps hitting the market. In fact, in the past two days, the internals have been as bad as I have ever seen.
I am not one to give targets but I am one that knows if a market is ready to turn or not. So far, not. There is underlying support down at the last bear market lows at 7200 DOW and 768 S&P. It amazes me, I actually have to mention these levels. This recent ridiculous whipsawing we have been seeing has now only led to another leg down. We may get some waterfall action here because of the break but not sure. I remain in 100% cash and I remain up in this bear market for the ages.
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