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Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"...a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
Over the past few days, I have been hearing so many things. The permabears are saying that the market will go back in the tank soon as the economy is not going to get better. The permabulls are saying this is it...no really...this is it. This is really the bottom...of course, for the 15th time since the bear market started. The Obama administration is saying things are getting better because of them. Of course, they had said the Jan-March drop was all because of Bush. I wonder if they will revert back to IT IS ALL BUSH'S FAULT if the market heads back down.
For me, none of this matters. JUST WATCH THE MARKET. One does not have to worry whether this will last or not. One does not have to worry whether this is a new bull market or just a bear market rally. JUST WATCH THE MARKET. If distribution starts to show up on multiple days, then worry. If things start to break down again, then worry. If stocks start gapping down in droves during upcoming earning's season, then worry. Right now, the market continues to act fine. Here are some facts.
March 12th was the follow through day that put the market back into a confirmed rally. Just like all follow through days, I told you we will need to see more. We will need to see higher volume up days and lower volume pullbacks. We will need to see more and more stocks come up the right side of bases. We would need to see better group action. We would need to see FINANCIALS act better. We would need to see doubt on the way up. Well...so far, all of this is occurring. FINANCIALS broke above resistance on Friday. Major averages as well as most of the WORLD MARKET are now above the 50-day moving average. Volume has been heavier on up days. Important sectors like SEMIS and RETAIL are working well. My "good" list has picked up.
So let everyone yap. As I have always said, the market is the final arbiter. It always has been and always will be. It knew the FINANCIALS and REAL ESTATE were in trouble when they topped out in early to mid 07. It knew the economy was going to head south when the rest of the market topped later in 07. Maybe, just maybe, the market is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. I am not sure. But I am sure I will continue to keep my eye on the market and try to stay in lockstep or one step ahead. Maybe $12 trillion is doing the job.
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