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The Market Has Topped
By Gary Kaltbaum | TradingMarkets.com | March 1, 2007
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Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show "Investors Edge" on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of "Gary Kaltbaum's Trendwatch"...a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary's Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.

So let me get this straight. Alan Greenspan states several weeks back that housing was bottoming. Last week, he states we may have a recession. Sorry, you can't have it both ways. Thinking he caused this recent drop, Greenspan renegs overnight and now says he said POSSIBILITY of a recession...and not PROBABILITY. Futures went from DOWN BIG to up on those new comments. Two words Alan. SHUT UP! SHUT UP! SHUT UP! SHUT UP! SHUT UP! Well, that was ten words...but I mean it.

My next problem is Ben Bernanke. I am tired of hearing from him that everything is perfect. On the hill, he said:

"Liquidity is not a problem." Oh yeah. China being down 9% in a day is not a problem? Our DOW dropping 250 points in seconds is not a problem? Ben...your eyes were squinting when you answered that question. You also say that everything is fine...everything is dandy...but that in itself is a problem. Let's suppose you realize tomorrow that all your statistics are now saying a recession is coming. Are you going to be as mouthy telling everyone there are troubles ahead or are you going to abstain from answering. The problem Ben is that you have now put yourself in a box. One day this economy will have issues...and then what are you going to do.

I am not done.

The administration came out and stated that the drop was an "anomoly." This is irresponsible talk. Why? What are they going to say if we have more downside? There are two anomolies. I don't get it. When the market goes up, it is normal. When the market goes down, it is an anomoly. I have news for the Bush administration...markets do go down every now and then and bear markets do occur. The less you say...the better.

99.9% of pundits on Wall Street said not to worry and to buy. These pundits never change their stripes. Your job is to pay attention to no one. Pay all your attention to what the market is saying.

These are all extreme worries. I hate too much yapping by people that really don't have a clue. yes...I believe Greenspan and Bernanke do not have a clue. I believe they are reactive and not proactive and more importantly, I believe they just get in the way. Hoping for some silence in the future.

Markets had an anemic bounce yesterday but we are now on the count. It is the first day of an attempted rally. We shall now be looking for a follow-through day to tell us maybe...just maybe this was a one day event. You know where I stand ...THE MARKET HAS TOPPED...but will be willing to adjust as market action dictates. If we continue to bounce anemically, and then roll over, my voice will be even louder. I suspect we may have a date with the 200 day moving averages where I am sure the market will put up a major fight. That is only a few percent underneath here because of how sharp the recent drop was. At the very least, recognize that most bases in the market have broken down...and will need repairing before I can even start to get excited. Should be a fun March. Expect a lot of talking up of the market. Expect a lot of talk that everything is ok. The market will decide as it is a lot smarter than all the talk. BERNANKE is not worried about liquidity. KALTBAUM is very worried about liquidity.

Gary Kaltbaum

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