Anybody who claims right now to know what the market’s likely direction will be necessarily must be lying through their teeth -- or deluding themselves. Right now, a bull run to the end of the year is a toss of the coin, with the odds 50-50. That’s because for every bullish sign, there’s a bearish one.

Bullish: All three major indices turned bullish in August, and each of their ETFs is a technician’s buy. Bearish: They all did it on relatively low volume, and September is typically the stock market’s cruelest month.

Bullish: Oil and gas prices are moderating. Bearish: The housing market continues to deteriorate at an increasing rate, and the auto sector is sliding into the tank.

Bullish: Long term interest rates and mortgage rates are falling as the Fed stops raising interest rates. Bearish: The yield curve remains flat to inverted which is typically a sign of a coming recession.

I love this kind of situation from an analytical perspective because it poses the most difficult of forecasting challenges. On the other hand, I hate this kind of situation from an investing perspective because laying down your money is much more like gambling on a coin toss than speculating carefully in a poker game.

Let’s see what the post-Labor Day market brings us. A nice run-up to December would help more than a few money managers get back on the winning side so the bias is bullish. Just be patient now, and don’t overreach.

This Week’s Market Movers

Rarely are weeks so uneventful in the economic report arena. My bet on the only major market mover of the week is also the only major report. Productivity for 2006Q2 will be revised on Wednesday -- with up being bullish and down bearish. Productivity is important because increased productivity is the best check on wage inflation. My own view is that the go-go days of 3+% annual productivity growth are behind us for a while -- and that’s hardly good news.

Portfolio Shorts and Longs

I did my Attila the Hun impression on my portfolio this week, first closing the last of my (EPIXD | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) on some bad news from the FDA. I have no doubt at this point that some insider trading occurred in the days prior to this bad news as the stock softened quickly in advance of the news. Sure wish the Feds would clamp down on this crap.

I also closed my stem cell ASTM position and cut my position in (STEM | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) in half on some news that the latest “good news” about stem cells was likely overstated. STEM remains technically strong.

I’m most bullish on my (ABAX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) position. ABAX is a portable blood analysis play and it reached the top 10 on the IBD 100. Both fundamentals and technicals look good. Meanwhile, (HTI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) -- the fertility macroplay -- is behaving nicely and (AXCA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) -- a small pharma -- waits bullishly in the wings.

Peter Navarro is a business professor at the University of California and the author of the best-selling investment book “If It’s Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks” and the business shelf bestseller The Well-Timed Strategy.” His latest book is “The Coming China Wars.”