Intermeeting Or Intrameeting (Or Does It Matter?)

Four distribution days in six outings for the Naz.

One of the negatives of the session was the financials, as they begin to roll over.

Did the semis come down Wednesday because the chances of an intermeeting cut are diminished? Is that why they've lost ground eight days running?

I didn't think so.

What can be objectively deduced from the chart of the Semiconductor HLDRs is that the outlook for the semis' recovery is murkier/worse than it was at the start of the year. 

That is what the group is saying by this week's undercutting of the Jan. 3 low.

No rocket science there.

Just objective stuff that doesn't venture into forecasting what a break of support will do to price.

Among the names, Transmeta (TMTA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) was the latest in a long line of casualties in growth, breaking down along with Cabot (CCMP | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), and giving you more clues as to what's beneath the surface.

Elsewhere, Lincare (LNCR | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) sets up as well as any.

If you find yourself scratching your head as to why Cisco (CSCO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) could possibly come off as much as 72%, consider that the Internet infrastructure, the company's strong suit, is virtually built out...meanwhile, tech's two great growth areas, optical networking and wireless Internet access, are not areas in which CSCO is strong, the company's technology lagging that developed at places such as Nortel (NT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) and Juniper (JNPR | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating).

The point here is that leadership changes, and so should your reliance on key issues, be they glamour or bell or tertiary, for insight into sentiment.

Just like IBM (IBM | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) before it, and U.S. Steel way before it, Cisco cannot be expected to provide the same sentiment clues that it did for many years into perpetuity.

Because Cisco may or may not be Cisco.

Or at least the Cisco of old.

Beginning Friday, March 2, this column will go on a three-week sabbatical. Thursday (tomorrow) will be the last. I will return Friday, March 23.