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MidnightTrader.com's Analyst Play: Cisco
By Brooks McFeely | TradingMarkets.com | May 6, 2008

Cisco Systems (CSCO | news | PowerRating | PR Charts ) is slated to report its Q3 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.36 per share on revenue of $9.75 billion.

This stock is a routine higher-volume mover in the extended hours, particularly after an earnings release. The stock shows a strong pattern of extending session-to-session performance on earnings, posting wider next-day closing levels following 13 out of its last 19 extended-hours earnings releases. In the near-term, the stock is mixed, with two narrowing events and two widening moves in the last four quarters. It has, however, now put up back-to-back quarters of narrowing its post-earnings share move.

On Feb. 6, 2008, the stock fell 7.5% during evening trading after CSCO largely meets with Q2 results, but its revenue guidance disappoints. Shares rebounded to close up 1.3% the next day.

On Nov. 7, 2007, CSCO plummeted 9.6% in after-hours trade after topping estimates but also guiding its Q2 revenue view just below the Street view. It narrowed its negative move slightly the following day, closing the Nov. 8 regular session down 9.5%.

On Aug. 7, 2007, CSCO rose 5.7% in night trade after topping Q4 estimates and guiding Q1 sales above Street views. Shares added a bit more the next day to end the regular session up 6.7%.

On May 8, 2007, CSCO slid 5.3% in after-hours trade after the company beat expectations and guided mostly in line for its Q4. It headed slightly lower the following day, losing 6.5% by the closing bell.

On Feb. 6, 2007, shares gained 4.5% in the evening hours after the company reported a strong year-over-year gain in revenue but offered an outlook that straddled the Street view. The gain was trimmed to 2.9% the next day.

Brooks McFeely is widely regarded as the leading expert on extended-hours trading. He is a Managing Partner for Brochet Capital Partners, LP and the founder of Midnight Trader, Inc. (www.midnighttrader.com), the leading provider of pre-market and after-hours trading analysis and news to retail and institutional investors.


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