New book by Larry Connors Click here Improve your trading - See how
Alcoa (AA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) is set to report its Q2 results after today's close, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect the company to report a profit of $0.66 per share on revenue of $7.36 billion.
In looking back at Alcoa's session-to-session performance following after-hours earnings events, shares demonstrate a slight tendency toward wider next-day moves on the heels of evening financials, doing so in nine of the past 17 quarters. In the near-term, the performance is has shifted slightly, with three narrower moves in the last four quarters.
Looking deeper into the performance data, longs may want to be wary of betting with any evening upside moves. AA has seen an earnings-driven after-hours gain in nine of the 17 quarters we've tracked over the last five years. In six of those quarters the after-hours gain has narrowed or reversed into the red in the following day's regular session.
Shorts may get a better look at AA tonight as the stock has a consistent tendency to add to its earnings-driven after-hours decline in next-day regular session action. AA has recorded an after-hours decline in eight of the 17 quarters we've tracked, and six times that decline has widened for deeper losses by the following day's regular session close.
On April 7, 2008, AA edged up 0.03% in after-hours trade after the company missed the Street's estimates by a penny-a-share but beat revenue estimates. The gain reversed the following day with shares ending lower by 0.7%.
On Jan. 9, 2008, the stock gained 3.2% after AA reported ahead of the Street with Q4 and FY sales. The gain was clipped to 0.6% the next day.
On Oct. 9, 2007, AA edged up 0.3% in after-hours trade after beating on sales but missing on earnings. It turned south the following day, losing 2.4% by the closing bell.
On July 9, 2007, AA dipped 0.7% in night trade after Q2 profits slipped from a year ago on lower-than-expected sales. Shares eased further the next day, closing the regular session down 1.6%.
On April 10, 2007, AA came off a trading halt and edged up 2.2% after topping Q1 estimates. However, shares could not hold onto that momentum and closed the following day session up only 0.5%.
On Jan. 9, 2007, AA gained 4.7% in the evening hours after the company reported ahead of the Street and the year-ago period with Q4 results. The stock gained 6% the next day.
Brooks McFeely is widely regarded as the leading expert on extended-hours trading. He is a Managing Partner for Brochet Capital Partners, LP and the founder of Midnight Trader, Inc. (www.midnighttrader.com), the leading provider of pre-market and after-hours trading analysis and news to retail and institutional investors.
About TradingMarkets | Contact | Advertise | Careers | Link to Us | Site Map | Help | Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy | Return Policy | Testimonials | Feedback
The Connors Group, Inc. ("Company") is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. The analysts and employees or affiliates of Company may hold positions in the stocks, currencies or industries discussed here. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities and/or currencies. The Company, the authors, the publisher, and all affiliates of Company assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. Factual statements on the Company's website, or in its publications, are made as of the date stated and are subject to change without notice.
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any individual trader or trading system published by Company are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which be realized by you. In addition, the indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features of Company's products (collectively, the "Information") are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Examples presented on Company's website are for educational purposes only. Such set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the Information in making any investment. Rather, you should use the Information only as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor and tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING AND MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY BROKERAGE AND OTHER SLIPPAGE FEES. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
The Connors Group, Inc.
10 Exchange Place, Suite 1800
Jersey City, NJ 07302
© Copyright 2009 The Connors Group, Inc.
