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Texas Instruments (TXN | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) is due with its Q3 results after the bell tonight, and Wall Street is targeting a profit of $0.44 per share on revenue of $3.396 billion, according to Thomson Reuters.
TXN gives an edge to wider next-day share moves following evening earnings releases. It has widened 12 times, narrowed five and turned in one flat performance over the quarters we've tracked. The near-term pattern strongly favors a widening pattern, with share moves expanded in the last five quarters.
Looking deeper into the data, shorts take notice: of the 12 widening moves, seven of those were weaker evening trades that resulted in deeper declines the next day. Many of those examples happened over the last two years of reports.
Here are some recent quarters:
On July 21, 2008, the stock fell 12.1% after TXN missed with Q2 results and guidance. The loss expanded to 14% the next day.
On April 21, 2008, TXN declined 2.2% in evening trade after issuing guidance that could miss the Street view. It tumbled 5.8% by the close on April 22.
On Jan. 22, 2008, TXN firmed 3.1% in evening action after topping Q4 estimates and setting its Q1 guidance in line with the Street view. The stock added to its upside in the following Jan. 23 regular session, gaining 4.5% by the close.
On Oct. 22, 2007, TXN declined 4% in after-hours trade after the company met expectations but issued sales guidance below forecasts. It added to its downside in the Oct. 23 regular session, losing 8.3%.
On July 23, 2007, TXN slipped 3.4% in night trade after reporting Q2 EPS in line with estimates but missing on sales. Shares eased a bit further the next day to end the regular session down 4.5%.
On April 23, 2007, the stock was up 9.7% in the evening hours after the company reported ahead of the Street with Q1 results and guided mostly above. The gain was pared slightly, to 7.7%, the next day.
On Jan. 22, 2007, shares were up 2.3% after results topped the year-ago period and despite guidance below the Street view. The stock gained 3.5% the next day.
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