The markets finished the day on Wednesday off their highs, a warning that momentum to the upside might not be as strong as suspected. Here are five ways to take advantage of a market rally that may have run its course for the time being.
When stocks in general are moving higher, it often affords short term stock traders with the opportunity to focus not so much on stocks that are breaking out, but more on stocks that may be hinting that they are about to breakdown.
As buyers of weakness and sellers of strength, we are not especially interested in the moves that stocks have ALREADY made. We are more interested in the moves that stocks WILL make. This is in large part why we look to buy stocks when markets in general are moving lower, and look to sell stocks when markets are moving higher.
Which stocks do we look to sell when markets are moving higher? We target weak stocks, stocks that are trading below their 200-day moving averages. Our research, most recently in Larry Connors short term trading primer, How Markets Really Work, indicates that stocks that are trading below their 200-day moving averages tend to underperform the average stock. We have found it far more effective to bet against stocks trading below their 200-day moving average rather than betting against stronger stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages.
Once we have isolated the weak stocks from the strong stocks, how do we know when those weak stocks are at their most vulnerable to reversal? One of our favorite and most effective tools is the 2-period Relative Strength Index (RSI).
How does the 2-period RSI work? We use the RSI to determine how overbought a stock is. When a stock achieves a 2-period RSI of more than 90, we begin to keep an eye on the stock as a potentially overbought stock that may be ripe for reversal. When that stock's RSI climbs even higher, toward the 98 level, then we become especially interested in the stock. Our research indicates that stocks with 2-period RSIs of more than 98 have tended to underperform in one-day, two-day and one-week timeframes.
And when coupled with low Short Term PowerRatings, stocks with high 2-period RSI readings can be among the best opportunities for traders looking to bet against stocks that have moved too far too fast.
All five stocks in today's report have Short Term PowerRatings of 1 or 2. Our research into short term stock price behavior indicates that stocks with low Short Term PowerRatings have tended to underperform the average stock by significant margins. Stocks with Short Term PowerRatings of 2 have performed worse than the average stock after five days, and stocks with Short Term PowerRatings of 1 have actually trailed the average stock by a margin of nearly 5 to 1 over the same time period.
In addition to the Short Term PowerRatings and 2-period Relative Strength Index values accompanying each stock, I have noted the 100-period historical volatility values, as well. All else equal, stocks with higher HV(100) have shown the greater capacity for price movement in the short term.
Commvault Systems Inc.(CVLT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRatings 2. RSI(2) 99.79. HV(100): 68.20

Global Cash Access Holdings (GCA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRatings 2. RSI(2): 99.11. HV(100): 101.01

The Pantry Inc. (PTRY | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 2. RSI(2): 99.03. HV(100): 91.77

Vasco Data Security International (VDSI | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 2. RSI(2): 99.53. HV(100): 107.79

Powerwave Technologies (PWAV | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) Short Term PowerRating 1. RSI(2): 99.51. HV(100): 80.68

Does your stock trading need a tune-up? Our highest Short Term PowerRatings stocks have outperformed the average stock by a margin of nearly 17 to 1 after five days.
Whether you have a trading strategy of your own that could use a boost or are looking for a way to tell the stocks that will move higher in the short term from the stocks that are more likely to disappoint, our Short Term PowerRatings are based on more than a decade of quantified, backtested simulated stock trades involving millions of stocks between 1995 and 2007. Click the link above or call us at 888-484-8220, extension 1, and start your free trial today.
David Penn is Senior Editor for TradingMarkets.com.