Key Trading Strategies Yesterday

Kevin Haggerty
is a full-time professional trader who was head of trading for Fidelity Capital
Markets for seven years. Would you like Kevin to alert you of opportunities in
stocks, the SPYs, QQQQs (and more) for the next day’s trading?

Click here
for a free one-week trial to Kevin Haggerty’s Professional
Trading Service or call 888-484-8220 ext. 1.

It was another pause day after Friday’s move to the SPX 1532.91 close. The
index has closed the last two days at 1531.05 and 1533.70, with highs of 1535.34
and 1535.15. This double inside bar setup for the SPX is in position for the
"gang" to make a new cycle high above 1540.56 into the end of this second
quarter and 6-month performance report card. It’s not about fundamentals, it’s
about how much the Generals and hedge funds mark up their portfolios in spite of
the ever increasing negative economic environment on top of the weak $US Dollar.
During this rally off the SPX 1487.41 low on 6/8, the TLT has bounced off its
82.30 low to an 84.30 close yesterday. My guess is that long-term rates will
again move higher, putting pressure on equity evaluations, as a higher return is
required to offset the increased interest rate level. The long rates will move
higher, not because of a U.S. strong economic recovery, but because of foreign
selling of $US Dollar denominated assets. You can see the expectation for higher
rates in the long-term market in the recent decline in short-term rates. The $IRX
(3-month T-bill) hit a 43.50 low on Monday, versus 47.75 on 5/23/07. It closed
yesterday at 45.15.

There was a big dropoff in NYSE volume on Monday to 1.18 billion shares
following triple-witch, but there was no weakness in price as the SPX was only
-0.1%, and this was negated yesterday, as the SPX closed at 1533.70 +0.2%, while
the $INDU was also +0.2% to 13635. Both the QQQQ (-0.2%) and $COMPX were flat.
On Monday, the internals remained very short-term overbought, with the 4 MA of
the volume ratio 71 and breadth +1226. NYSE volume was 1.46 billion shares
yesterday, with the volume ratio 57 and breadth +568. The expectation from this
corner was for some weakness after triple-witch and the overbought conditions,
but as it gets closer to month-end, that diminishes because the manipulation
process will take precedence. No one ever said it was a level playing field.

The market action yesterday was much more trader friendly than the 3 gap
opening days in the SPX rally last week. There were excellent contracted
volatility continuation trades yesterday in focus stocks like IBM, NOC, RTN,
NCR, PCAR and a Trap Door in NIHD at the -1.28 Volatility Band and 480 ema. For
the bulls, the SPX yesterday morning gave you a 1-2-3 close entry above 1527.15,
or the 5-bar ledge breakout above 1527.59 if you passed on the first entry.
There was also a .618 pullback later that ran from 1527.41 to 1535.97. This
advance made the bears happy, because it set up the RST short, which traded down
to 1529.54 before closing at 1533.20. The examples of these trade setups are in
today’s trading service, and are available to free trial subscribers, so check
it out. The energy sector is off the charts, as the 7-day OIH rally from 165.06
hit a 180.93 intraday high yesterday before closing at 179.50. Crude oil ($WTIC)
hit 69.97 yesterday, closing at 69.54, up from 62.43 13 days ago. This sector
has been the Trading Service primary stock focus since 10/06 when the OIH hit
the key price zone at 118. There is no trading edge, as today is the 8th day of
the current spike, from 165.06, and is too much too soon. Obviously a pullback
is needed.

Most of the SPX rally last week, as I previously mentioned, came on the big
gap-up openings, and I see that "they" have the SPX futures +4.5 points at 8:30
AM, so if that holds and move higher after the opening, daytraders will be
looking for Trap Door shorts in the major indexes. The last 8 trading days in
the quarter belong to the Generals and hedge funds, and we can just try to catch
a directional ride each day. Don’t get cerebral and think you are a "market"
reader, because you are not, and we are just pawns in the 6-month report card
manipulation game.

Have a good trading day,

Kevin Haggerty

Have You Switched to ConnorsRSI?

ConnorsRSI is the first Quantified Momentum Indicator -- the next-generation improvement to traditional RSI indicators. At Connors Research, we are using it as an overlay to many of our best strategies to make them even better -- now you can, too.

Enter your email address to get your FREE download of our Introduction to ConnorsRSI - 2nd Edition - Trading Strategy Guidebook with newly updated historical results.

About Kevin Haggerty

From 1990 to 1997, Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions. For a free trial to Kevin’s Daily Trading Report, please click here.

Disclaimer: The Connors Group, Inc. ("Company") is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. The analysts and employees or affiliates of Company may hold positions in the stocks, currencies or industries discussed here. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities and/or currencies. The Company, the authors, the publisher, and all affiliates of Company assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. Factual statements on the Company's website, or in its publications, are made as of the date stated and are subject to change without notice.
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any individual trader or trading system published by Company are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which be realized by you. In addition, the indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features of Company's products (collectively, the "Information") are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Examples presented on Company's website are for educational purposes only. Such set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the Information in making any investment. Rather, you should use the Information only as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor and tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING AND MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY BROKERAGE AND OTHER SLIPPAGE FEES. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All analyst commentary provided on TradingMarkets.com is provided for educational purposes only. The analysts and employees or affiliates of TradingMarkets.com may hold positions in the stocks or industries discussed here. This information is NOT a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Your use of this and all information contained on TradingMarkets.com is governed by the Terms and Conditions of Use. Please click the link to view those terms. Follow this link to read our Editorial Policy.